应对城区洪水:经济角度的分析

摘要

New Orleans and Bangkok offer two vivid examples of major urban areas impactedin recent years by massive inundations of floodwaters.The advent of climate change promises to encroach upon many more cities;yet urban planners,infrastructure planners and other policy makers lack a clear and consistent framework for analyzing the costs and benefits of alternative modes of adaptation.This paper offers a primer on the economic analysis of three distinct modes of adaptation,with a view to assisting planners in determining the best course of action for their respective cities.The first mode of adaptation entails physical modificationsto the environment through building of dikes,levees,canals,and installation of pumping stations and related infrastructure. The second mode of adaptation is to modify land uses, and in particular to locate or relocate vulnerable resident populations and businesses away from food-prone areas. The third type of response is to concentrate more efforts on clean up and recovery after the fact rather than on prevention or avoidance.The cost-benefit calculus of each response mode will vary from one place to the next.Our analysis is designed to help planners determine which of these three adaptive responses to urban flooding are best suited to their own local circumstances.

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