Forecasts of domestic air travel growth are the product of myriad assumptions relating to the structure of the marketplace, and direction of public policy, and the state of the national economy. Some variables instrumental to such forecasts, including available seat-miles (ASMs) and average aircraft size, generally move in relatively consistent patterns; others, such as fuel prices and the gross national product, tend to defy accurate prediction more than a year or two in advance. Integrating these many factors into a single forecast requires both reliable data and recognition of the probable sources of error.
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