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Risk Management in Procurement: A Selection of Sourcing Strategy Based on Real Option

机译:采购风险管理:基于实物期权的采购策略选择

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In presence of a high uncertainty level, having the possibility (given by a multiple source strategy) to switch an order to another supplier, already contracted, if the main one has had a default can be very valuable in order to mitigate and manage the risk in purchasing. Nevertheless, multi-source procurement implies a greater cost than single-source one. Thus, a correct evaluation of its (uncertain) benefits is needed to justify the added costs. As traditional "static" techniques often fail in this analysis, this paper uses an approach based on Real Options Theory to value the (supplier switching) option given by multiple sourcing strategy. A quantitative model based on the Monte Carlo simulation was developed. This technique is able to take several uncertainty sources into consideration and, therefore, overcome the limit of traditional methods used in stable and "deterministic" environments.
机译:在存在高度不确定性的情况下,如果主要供应商有违约行为,则有可能(通过多源策略)将订单切换到已签约的另一家供应商,这对于降低风险和管理风险非常有价值。在购买中。然而,多来源采购意味着比单一来源采购更高的成本。因此,需要对其(不确定的)收益进行正确的评估,以证明增加的成本是合理的。由于传统的“静态”技术在此分析中经常失败,因此本文使用基于实物期权理论的方法来评估多重采购策略给出的(供应商切换)期权。建立了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的定量模型。该技术能够考虑多种不确定性源,因此克服了稳定和“确定性”环境中使用的传统方法的局限性。

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