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首页> 外文会议>The 13th International Pipeline Pigging, Integrity Assessment amp; Repair Conference, Courses, Exhibition Feb 6-8, 2001 Houston >Pipeline risk assessment: new developments for natural gas and hydrocarbon pipelines
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Pipeline risk assessment: new developments for natural gas and hydrocarbon pipelines

机译：管道风险评估：天然气和碳氢化合物管道的新发展

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摘要

The pipeline industry worldwide has a good safety record, and accidents are rare. Nevertheless, the possibility of accidental releases can never be discounted, and it is important that pipeline operators have an understanding of the causes and potential consequences of such releases in order to help manage the risks involved. The development of techniques to allow quantified risk assessments of pipelines to be undertaken has accelerated in recent years, supported by mathematical modelling and experimental validation. These techniques offer operators the opportunity to optimise safety by targeting areas where risk can be reduced most cost-effectively, and to optimise the use of pipeline assets by avoiding inappropriate restrictions on pipeline operations. This paper describes the PIPESAFE risk assessment package for natural gas transmission pipelines, and gives examples of its use. PIPESAFE is an integrated hazard and risk assessment package, which combines knowledge and models for all aspects of a gas transmission pipeline failure, taking into account the extended pipeline source and the time-dependent nature of the event. PIPESAFE has been developed by Advantica on behalf of an international collaboration of gas transmission companies, and has been extensively validated by large-scale experimentation, formal software testing, comparison with incidents, and a detailed uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Recent work has established methods of extending the approach adopted in PIPESAFE to pipelines carrying other hazardous materials, involving analysis of the risks to the environment, as well as to people and property.
机译：全球的管道行业都有良好的安全记录，事故很少见。然而，意外泄漏的可能性永远不能低估，管道运营商必须了解此类泄漏的原因和潜在后果，以帮助管理所涉及的风险，这一点很重要。近年来，在数学建模和实验验证的支持下，允许对管道进行量化风险评估的技术的开发加速了。这些技术为操作员提供了机会，可以通过以可以最经济有效地降低风险的区域为目标来优化安全，并可以避免对管道运营的不适当限制，从而优化管道资产的使用。本文介绍了用于天然气输送管道的PIPESAFE风险评估软件包，并给出了其使用示例。 PIPESAFE是一个集成的危害和风险评估包，结合了输气管道故障各个方面的知识和模型，同时考虑了扩展的管道源和事件的时间依赖性。 PIPESAFE由Advantica代表气体传输公司的国际合作而开发，并已通过大规模实验，正式软件测试，与事件的比较以及详细的不确定性和敏感性分析得到了广泛的验证。最近的工作已经建立了将PIPESAFE中采用的方法扩展到承载其他有害物质的管道的方法，涉及对环境以及对人员和财产的风险的分析。

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