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PROSPECTS FOR A FUTURE GLOBAL PRICE FOR LNG

机译：液化天然气未来全球价格的前景

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Historically LNG prices have been indexed to crude oil prices and, combined with the general similarity between supply contracts into individual markets, prices have therefore tended to lie within a relatively narrow and predictable range within any given market at any given point in time. However a number of factors are now creating the potential for increased linkages between individual markets. rnAtlantic Basin LNG sales into the mature, deregulated and competitive US market, which are projected to grow from a level of 6 bcm in 2002 to potentially more than 50 bcm by 2010, are effectively price takers of the US price (generally NYMEX but also includes other regional hubs). These prices reflect the physical fundamentals of the gas market rather than the oil price per se. Looking forward, we see the potential for the European market to follow a similar route through its commitment to liberalisation of EU gas markets. This paper will examine the extent to which this influence of regional market prices will increase as suppliers are likely to grow increasingly used to netback pricing, and are able to arbitrage cargoes between regional markets. rnChanging dynamics in the Atlantic Basin also impact the more “established” Pacific Basin as increasingly significant Middle Eastern producers are uniquely positioned to arbitrage supplies between what have historically been regarded as two discrete regional markets. Indeed, in the Pacific Basin we are also witnessing new price levels in recent contracts, as buyers become more conscious of competitive pressures in their own gas and power markets and of their buying power. At the same time competition to secure further sales contracts increases as a number of new projects seek to secure foundation contract volumes. rnAnticipation of future LNG imports into US West Coast raises the prospects of a further interconnected global LNG market. This paper will examine the future price influences across both Basins and assess whether a global price might ultimately emerge, and if so what that price might be.
机译：从历史上看，液化天然气价格一直以原油价格为索引，并结合各个市场的供应合同之间的普遍相似性，因此在任何给定的时间点内，任何给定市场中的价格都倾向于处于相对狭窄且可预测的范围内。但是，现在有许多因素正在创造增加单个市场之间联系的潜力。 rn流域到成熟，放松管制和竞争激烈的美国市场的液化天然气销售预计将从2002年的6bcm增长到2010年的可能超过50bcm，实际上是美国价格的接受者（通常是NYMEX，但也包括其他区域中心）。这些价格反映的是天然气市场的基本面，而不是石油价格本身。展望未来，我们看到欧洲市场通过其对欧盟天然气市场自由化的承诺将遵循类似的途径。本文将探讨随着供应商可能越来越习惯于网购定价以及能够在区域市场之间套利货物的情况，区域市场价格的影响程度将在何种程度上增加。 rn由于越来越多的中东生产商处于在历史上被视为两个离散的区域市场之间套利的独特位置，大西洋盆地的变化动态也影响了更为“成熟的”太平洋盆地。的确，在太平洋盆地，随着买家对自己的天然气和电力市场的竞争压力以及购买力的意识增强，我们在最近的合同中也看到了新的价格水平。同时，随着许多新项目寻求确保基础合同量，争夺更多销售合同的竞争也在加剧。 rn预计未来将向美国西海岸进口LNG，这将为全球LNG市场进一步互联互通提供前景。本文将研究两个盆地之间未来价格的影响，并评估是否最终会出现全球价格，如果是，价格会是多少。

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