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首页> 外文会议>2002 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference, Aug 5-9, 2002, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada >OPTIMAL CONTROL OF PERFORMANCE RISK FOR LARGE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEMS (LPDS)
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OPTIMAL CONTROL OF PERFORMANCE RISK FOR LARGE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEMS (LPDS)

机译：大型潜在危险系统（LPDS）的性能风险最佳控制

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The paper considers the safety problem for large potentially dangerous systems (LPDS). Disruption of their normal operations may lead to casualties, ecological and property damage. Solution to the above problem is sought in the framework of risk control of LPDS during their normal operation, based on the principle of preventive actions. Risk is described as the product of conditional probability of failure and the overall consequences of such failure. Methods of brining down risk analysis problems to reliability problems are presented. They are based on the following: assessments of "cost of life" (as economic equivalent of casualty); simultaneous optimization of the LPDS and its safety subsystem (expansion of the object of optimization). Such an approach allows unification and merging of structural reliability theory and probabilistic risk analysis. A quantitative method of damage size (the first component of risk) assessment is described, based on computer modeling of a full group of scenarios of a structural failure developing into a full blown LPDS catastrophe. As a result of modeling, the destruction zones and the character, size and probabilities of all kinds of damage (casualties, ecological damage, loss of property) are assessed. It is proposed, as the main method of securing LPDS integrity and safety, to equip each LPDS with suitable monitoring/inspection/maintenance systems, designed as an instrument for controlling the second component of risk (conditional probability of failure), on the basis of a three-level (warning-alarm-failure) control policy. In the outlined format maintenance/repair is considered as optimal control of random degradation and renewal functions, interaction of which forms a certain regeneration process. Analysis of this process allows defining the optimal triggering levels of deterioration parameters or risk that minimize total expenditures of LPDS performance while ensuring its safety. The problem formulated above naturally embodies all existing maintenance methods (based on admissible performance time, rate of failure and on actual and prognosed system condition). Further, the problem of optimal cessation of performance is solved. It allows convoluting a multi-parameter problem into a one-parameter problem and defining the ultimate permissible level of conditional probability of failure. The described methods of risk analysis and control were used in residual lifetime monitoring systems for oil pumping aggregates and for main oil pipe line segments repair prioritization.
机译：本文考虑了大型潜在危险系统（LPDS）的安全问题。中断其正常运行可能会导致人员伤亡，生态和财产损失。根据预防措施的原则，在LPDS正常运行期间的风险控制框架内寻求解决上述问题的方法。风险被描述为条件性失败概率与此类失败的整体后果的乘积。提出了将风险分析问题归结为可靠性问题的方法。它们基于以下内容：对“生命成本”的评估（相当于伤亡的经济价值）；同时优化LPDS及其安全子系统（扩展优化对象）。这种方法允许结构可靠性理论和概率风险分析的统一和合并。基于对结构性故障演变成完全的LPDS灾难的整个场景的计算机建模，描述了一种损伤大小（风险的第一部分）评估的定量方法。作为建模的结果，评估了破坏区域以及各种破坏（人员伤亡，生态破坏，财产损失）的特征，大小和概率。作为确保LPDS完整性和安全性的主要方法，建议在每个LPDS上配备适当的监视/检查/维护系统，该系统被设计为控制风险的第二部分（有条件的故障概率）的工具，其依据是：三级（警告警报故障）控制策略。在概述的格式中，维护/维修被认为是对随机降级和更新功能的最佳控制，其相互作用形成一定的再生过程。通过对该过程进行分析，可以定义劣化参数或风险的最佳触发水平，从而在确保LPDS性能安全的同时将LPDS性能的总支出降至最低。上面提出的问题自然体现了所有现有的维护方法（基于允许的执行时间，故障率以及实际和已预测的系统状况）。此外，解决了最佳停止性能的问题。它允许将多参数问题卷积为单参数问题，并定义条件故障概率的最终允许水平。所描述的风险分析和控制方法已用于剩余寿命监测系统中，用于抽油料骨料和主要输油管道的维修优先级。

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