Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to Pore Pressure and FractureGradient Prediction

机译：定量风险分析在孔隙压力和裂缝预测中的应用 r n梯度预测

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The present deterministic pore pressure and fracture gradientrnprediction techniques simplify the input variables from arnstatistical range of data to a deterministic value, therebyrnproducing over-simplified deterministic pore pressure andrnfracture gradient results. As a consequence, we lose the abilityrnto quantitatively analyze risks, and we cannot quantify thernuncertainties of our pore pressure and fracturerngradient prediction.rnThis paper describes a methodology for quantitative riskrnanalysis (QRA) of pore pressure and fracture gradientrnprediction and shows that applications of QRA in this arearnwill improve the techniques of pore pressure and fracturerngradient calculations. In addition, QRA will open a full rangernof new applications in risk prediction, risks evaluation, riskrnmanagement, decision making, real-time kick and loss-returnrnrisk monitoring, risk control, and casing design.

机译：当前的确定性孔隙压力和裂缝梯度预测技术将输入变量从数据的统计范围简化到确定性值，从而产生过于简化的确定性孔隙压力和裂缝梯度结果。结果，我们丧失了定量分析风险的能力，无法量化孔隙压力和裂缝梯度预测的不确定性。本文描述了孔隙压力和裂缝梯度预测的定量风险分析（QRA）的方法，并显示了QRA在此方面的应用Arearn将改善孔隙压力和裂缝梯度计算的技术。此外，QRA还将在风险预测，风险评估，风险管理，决策，实时反冲和损失归还风险监控，风险控制以及套管设计等方面打开全方位的新应用。

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《SPE annual technical conference and exhibition;SPE 2002》|2002年|p.1-9|共9页
会议地点 San Antonio TX(US);San Antonio TX(US)
作者
Q. J. Liang;
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IPM Schlumberger;

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正文语种 eng
中图分类石油、天然气加工工业;
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机译：海洋沉积物原位孔隙压力测量分析与应用

Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to Pore Pressure and FractureGradient Prediction

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