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首页> 外文会议>2009 NPRA annual meeting papers >U.S. REFINING: CHANGINGCONFIGURATION FOR NEW DEMANDREALITIES
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U.S. REFINING: CHANGINGCONFIGURATION FOR NEW DEMANDREALITIES

机译：美国炼油：更改新需求的配置

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Over the past three years, the perception of United States (US) refining has come full circle — from arnshortage of capacity following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, through the uncertainty of new USrnbiofuels legislation, to the current economic downturn and contracting demand for transport fuel. Our viewrnis that US gasoline demand peaked in 2007, and the industry is facing a period of weakening demand andrnincreasing displacement of conventional gasoline by ethanol. Global distillate demand is starting tornencourage US refiners to rethink their product mix to remain competitive in a trans-Atlantic market that isrnmoving toward a truly integrated two-way products trade.rnUS product supply (refining) capacity is growing in the near- and mid-term, while product demand isrncontracting. The picture is even more challenging for the hydrocarbon portion of that demand. Biofuels arernincreasingly expected to displace fossil fuels on the margin. The future is now, and it is not the refiningrnbusiness we remember. Our sober view is that, for the first time in decades, product demand couldrncontract year-on-year for the next several years. This is a cause for concern as the bulk of the US refiningrnadditions that were so recently needed, are now starting to come online in 2009, 2010, and 2011.rnWe forecast both year-on-year totali US product and hydrocarbon demand to have their biggest drops inrn2009. With an expected economic upturn no earlier than 3Q09, total product demand is forecast to stoprncontracting on an annualii basis from 2010 onward. However, hydrocarbon demand is forecast to declinernthrough 2012 as the pressure to substitute hydrocarbon with biofuels continues. There is a growingrnlikelihood that biofuel substitution could even increase under a new US Administration.rnUS refiners face a challenging time ahead-particularly with gasoline margins remaining under pressurernover the near term. We also see the lure of strong and durable diesel margins driving subsequentrninvestment toward a more flexible product yield. The ability to process heavy crudes will still remain a longtermrnobjective as global oil demand eventually resumes its growth. However, new North American capacityrnadditions, coupled with recent product demand declines, mean increased, prolonged, and substantialrnpressure on refinery utilization rates.
机译：在过去的三年中，对美国炼油的认识已达到了一个完整的境界：从2005年卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风过后的产能严重短缺，新的美国生物燃料立法的不确定性到当前的经济下滑和运输需求萎缩汽油。我们认为，美国汽油需求在2007年达到顶峰，该行业正处于需求疲软和乙醇替代传统汽油的时期。全球馏分油需求开始刺激美国炼油企业重新考虑其产品组合，以在跨大西洋的市场中保持竞争力，该市场正朝着真正一体化的双向产品贸易迈进。术语，而产品需求却在收缩。对于该需求的碳氢化合物部分而言，情况更具挑战性。人们越来越期望使用生物燃料来替代化石燃料。未来就在眼前，这不是我们记得的炼油业务。我们的清醒观点是，几十年来，产品需求在未来几年中可能会按年收缩。这是一个令人担忧的问题，因为最近急需的大量美国炼油装置现已在2009年，2010年和2011年投入使用。我们预测美国的总产品产量和碳氢化合物需求量都将同比增长。 2009年最大跌幅。由于预计经济复苏不会早于2009年第三季度，因此从2010年开始，预计总产品需求将每年停止合同收缩。然而，由于用生物燃料替代碳氢化合物的压力持续存在，预计到2012年碳氢化合物需求将下降。在新的美国政府领导下，生物燃料替代甚至有可能增加的可能性越来越大。美国炼油厂面临着充满挑战的时期，尤其是在短期内汽油利润率仍处于压力之下。我们还看到了强劲而持久的柴油利润诱因，促使随后的投资转向更灵活的产品产量。随着全球石油需求最终恢复增长，加工重质原油的能力仍将是长期目标。但是，北美新产能的增加，再加上近期产品需求的下降，意味着炼油厂利用率的提高，持续时间以及巨大压力。

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