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首页> 外文会议>2012 ASE International Conference on BioMedical Computing >Emerging Infectious Disease: A Computational Multi-agent Model
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Emerging Infectious Disease: A Computational Multi-agent Model

机译：新兴传染病：一种计算多主体模型

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摘要

In today's global society there exists a need to understand and predict the behavior of vector-borne diseases. With globalization, human groups tend to interact with other groups that can have one or multiple types of viruses. Currently, there are many mathematical models for studying patterns of emerging infectious diseases. These mathematical models are based on differential equations and can become unmanageable due to many parameters involved. With this in mind, we design and implement a simple spatial computational multi-agent model that can be used as a tool to analyze and predict the behavior of emerging infectious diseases. Our novel computational agent-based model integrated with evolution and phylogeny to simulate and understand emerging infectious diseases, which enables us to prevent or control outbreaks of infectious diseases in an effective and timely manner. Our multi-agent spatial-temporal model contributes to epidemiology, public health and computational simulation in several folds: First, our simulation offers an effective way to train public policy decision-makers who will respond to emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases in an appropriately and timely manner. Second, our model has the potential to aid real-time disease control and decision making. Third, our model uniquely takes evolution of viruses into account. Evolution of viruses means their genomic DNA/RNA sequence can mutate and compete for subpopulations of hosts (human, birds/pets). Our implementation provides graphical representation of the results by conducting a set of experiments under various settings.
机译：在当今的全球社会中，需要了解和预测媒介传播疾病的行为。随着全球化的发展，人类群体倾向于与可能拥有一种或多种病毒的其他群体互动。当前，有许多数学模型用于研究新兴传染病的模式。这些数学模型基于微分方程，由于涉及许多参数，因此变得难以管理。考虑到这一点，我们设计并实现了一个简单的空间计算多主体模型，该模型可以用作分析和预测新兴传染病行为的工具。我们新颖的基于计算代理的模型结合了进化和系统进化论，可以模拟和理解新兴的传染病，从而使我们能够有效，及时地预防或控制传染病的爆发。我们的多主体时空模型在多个方面促进了流行病学，公共卫生和计算模拟：首先，我们的模拟提供了一种有效的方法，可以培训公共政策决策者，他们将在适当，及时的情况下应对传染病的突发爆发方式。其次，我们的模型具有辅助实时疾病控制和决策的潜力。第三，我们的模型独特地考虑了病毒的进化。病毒的进化意味着它们的基因组DNA / RNA序列可以突变并竞争宿主（人，鸟/宠物）的亚群。我们的实现通过在各种设置下进行一组实验来提供结果的图形表示。

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