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Detecting the early evidence of real monetary converges for ASEAN5#x002B;3 after Asian financial crisis

机译:发现亚洲金融危机后东盟5 + 3实际货币趋同的早期证据

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This paper is aiming to investigate the possibilities of monetary convergence in selected Asian countries. The paper evaluates the level of real (represented by GDP) and monetary (represented by CPI and interest rate) converges for the combination for the ASEAN 5+3 countries namely Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines as well as Japan, Korea and China. This paper applied various advance time series econometric techniques such as Unit root tests, Johansen Juselius cointegration test to be followed by Vector Error Correction model (VECM) to capture the long run and short run relationship among the variables. Next we used the VECM temporal causality test in order to capture the temporary deviation and generalized variance decomposition is used to determine the leading variables within the system. The outcome suggests a mixed evidence of cointegration between the GDP, CPI and interest rate for the ASEAN 5+3 economies. The integration process may take longer than expected due to the lack of political commitment, economic stability and unpredictable natural disasters. In order to form the economic cointegration, ASEAN 5+3 has to revamp its current financial systems as well as to formulate reasonable and workable economic integration guidelines by setting a clear, consistent and simplified trade procedure and regulation.
机译:本文旨在研究某些亚洲国家货币融合的可能性。本文评估了东盟5 + 3国家(马来西亚,新加坡,印度尼西亚,泰国和菲律宾以及日本,韩国和韩国)的组合的实际水平(由GDP表示)和货币水平(由CPI和利率表示)的收敛水平。中国。本文应用了各种先进的时间序列计量经济学技术,例如单位根检验,Johansen Juselius协整检验,然后采用矢量误差校正模型(VECM)来捕获变量之间的长期和短期关系。接下来,我们使用VECM时间因果关系检验来捕获临时偏差,并使用广义方差分解来确定系统内的前导变量。结果表明,东盟5 + 3经济体的GDP,CPI和利率之间存在协整关系。由于缺乏政治承诺,经济稳定和不可预测的自然灾害,融合过程可能需要比预期更长的时间。为了形成经济一体化,东盟5 + 3必须通过设定清晰,一致和简化的贸易程序和法规来改变其现有的金融体系,并制定合理和可行的经济一体化准则。

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