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首页> 外文会议>2013 Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium >Near-Earth phase risk comparison of human Mars campaign architectures
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Near-Earth phase risk comparison of human Mars campaign architectures

机译：人类火星战役架构的近地阶段风险比较

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摘要

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project [1]. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed.
机译：人类火星探测运动架构的发射，轨道组装和地球离开阶段的风险分析已完成，这是对最初由美国国家航空航天局星座计划阿瑞斯五号项目[1]进行的概率风险评估（PRA）的扩展。更新分析的目的是研究运动损失风险对诸如运载火箭车队的推进剂输送部分组成（Ares V重型运载火箭与小型/廉价商用运载火箭）组成等建筑因素的敏感性。以及发射器或与火星相连的航天器的备用程度。开发了静态PRA分析和基于事件的动态Monte Carlo模拟，并用于评估在不同备用选项下战役损失的可能性。结果表明，在没有任何保留的情况下，运动损失的风险在很大程度上取决于发射器数量和在轨游荡者的持续时间，因此倾向于全Ares V发射方法。此外，通过增加单个备用发射器/有效载荷，全Ares V架构的可靠性得到了显着改善。在使用Ares V和商用发射器混合使用的架构中，如果假定无限量的商用车备用，那么那些将火星约束元素在轨徘徊时间最小化的架构将超过无备用“ Ares V”活动的可靠性。

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