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首页> 外文会议>2013 Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium >Developing effective reliability growth strategies for DoD programs
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Developing effective reliability growth strategies for DoD programs

机译：为国防部计划制定有效的可靠性增长策略

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Planning for reliability growth requires a disciplined approach rather than an “ad hoc” approach. The reliability growth program must be devised early so that adequate test phase lengths and test assets can be planned to optimize reliability growth opportunities. The primary goal of the Reliability Growth Test (RGT) is to improve the probability of demonstrating achievement of the reliability requirement during Operational Testing (OT); which should also translate to effective reliability performance when fielded. The first step in the planning process is to determine the length of test time needed to reach a planned reliability growth goal before entry into OT testing. The planned growth goal should be above the reliability requirement to ensure that the requirement can be demonstrated with at least an 80 percent statistical lower confidence bound (LCB) during the OT phase. The primary inputs to planning models in general are: the initial reliability value from which the growth will commence, the anticipated reliability “growth rate”, the target or goal reliability, and the planned test length (phases). The initial starting reliability value is a critical input variable as it tends to influence overall test length. The best method for selecting an initial reliability value is to have some early test results where reliability has been determined by actual observed performance. The alternate method of selecting the initial reliability value based on some percentage of the requirement would entail formulating a less effective and higher risk test strategy. The next value that is critical to planning models is the growth rate. Choosing growth parameters that are realistic is an important step so that adequate test times can be planned. The final two major contributors are the goal reliability and test length, which directly influence cost and schedule. For this reason, various reliability growth strategies should be explored in order to- optimize the reliability growth; balancing technical risk with program schedule and budget.
机译：规划可靠性增长需要一种纪律严明的方法，而不是“临时”方法。必须尽早设计可靠性增长计划，以便可以计划足够的测试阶段长度和测试资产来优化可靠性增长机会。可靠性增长测试（RGT）的主要目标是提高在操作测试（OT）中证明达到可靠性要求的可能性；部署时也应转化为有效的可靠性能。计划过程的第一步是确定在进入OT测试之前达到计划的可靠性增长目标所需的测试时间。计划的增长目标应高于可靠性要求，以确保在OT阶段可以用至少80％的统计下置信界（LCB）证明要求。通常，计划模型的主要输入是：开始增长的初始可靠性值，预期的可靠性“增长率”，目标或目标可靠性以及计划的测试时间（阶段）。初始启动可靠性值是一个关键的输入变量，因为它会影响总体测试时间。选择初始可靠性值的最佳方法是获得一些早期测试结果，其中可靠性已由实际观察到的性能确定。根据要求的某个百分比选择初始可靠性值的替代方法将需要制定一种效率较低，风险较高的测试策略。对计划模型至关重要的下一个值是增长率。选择切合实际的生长参数是重要的一步，因此可以计划足够的测试时间。最后两个主要因素是目标可靠性和测试时间，这直接影响成本和进度。因此，应探索各种可靠性增长策略，以优化可靠性增长。在计划进度和预算之间平衡技术风险。

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