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首页> 外文会议>2014 IEEE/OES Baltic International Symposium : Measuring and modeling of multi-scale interactions in the marine environment: Book of abstracts >Forecasting global temperatures: Missing the point? The consequences of the hiatus
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Forecasting global temperatures: Missing the point? The consequences of the hiatus

机译：预测全球温度：遗漏了重点吗？中断的后果

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摘要

We use singular spectrum analysis techniques to discriminate the underlying signals within the HadCRUT4 global surface temperature record. Our analysis identifies a multidecadal oscillation (related to natural oscillations) and a secular trend (assumed to be representative of anthropogenic-induced warming) as the two main signals within the temperature record. Most current generation global circulation models (CMIP5) do not reproduce the multidecadal oscillation and fail to capture the present observed temperature hiatus in their simulations. Therefore, it is unlikely that these models can correctly forecast the temperature evolution during the coming decades. Statistical forecasts based on the analyzed secular trend and the multidecadal oscillations are indeed capable of reproducing the observed hiatus and generally result, in comparison to CMIP5 forecasts, in much lower temperature increases for 2100 of only about +0.39°C [−0.47–2.46] assuming a “business as usual” scenario. Either the global energy budget uncertainty is still too large or the increased radiative forcing does rather lead to accelerated warming of other parts of the climate system as the ocean or the cryosphere.
机译：我们使用奇异频谱分析技术来区分HadCRUT4全球表面温度记录内的潜在信号。我们的分析将多年代际振荡（与自然振荡有关）和长期趋势（假设是人为诱发的变暖的代表）确定为温度记录中的两个主要信号。大多数当前的全球循环模型（CMIP5）都无法再现多年代际振荡，并且无法在模拟中捕获当前观测到的温度中断。因此，这些模型不可能正确预测未来几十年的温度变化。基于已分析的长期趋势和多年代际振荡的统计预测确实能够再现观测到的裂隙，并且与CMIP5预测相比，通常得出的结果是2100年的温度上升幅度仅低+ 0.39°C [-0.47–2.46]假设情况“照常营业”。全球能源预算不确定性仍然太大，或者辐射强迫的增加确实导致了气候系统其他部分（如海洋或冰冻圈）的加速升温。

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