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首页> 外文会议>2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems >Operational Risk Impact of Flexibility Requirements and Ramp Forecast on the North American Bulk Power System
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Operational Risk Impact of Flexibility Requirements and Ramp Forecast on the North American Bulk Power System

机译：灵活性要求和加坡预测对北美大电网的运营风险影响

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摘要

This paper analyzes the impacts to system flexibility and reliability risks resulting from ramping uncertainties associated with variable energy resources (VERs) such as wind and solar power. A detailed assessment using statistical analysis and forecasting models is applied to an ERCOT case study for a one-hour to 72-hour look-ahead period. The operational impacts of variable energy resources combined with load variations are examined under multiple scenarios. The results show a need to plan for additional flexible resources to manage ramping uncertainty as more variable energy resources are integrated into the system. Forecast accuracy is analyzed and error measures are determined at different VER penetration levels. The findings also suggest the importance of advancing probabilistic modeling tools to support reliability analysis and planning. New tools are needed to enable a flexible and reliable system under conditions of high variability associated with VERs combined with load uncertainty.
机译：本文分析了由可变能源（VERs）（例如风能和太阳能）带来的不确定性上升对系统灵活性和可靠性风险的影响。使用统计分析和预测模型进行的详细评估已应用于ERCOT案例研究中，为期1小时至72小时。在多种情况下研究了可变能源与负载变化相结合的运行影响。结果表明，随着更多可变能源被集成到系统中，需要计划额外的灵活资源来管理不确定性。分析预测准确性，并在不同的VER渗透级别确定误差度量。研究结果还表明，发展概率建模工具以支持可靠性分析和计划的重要性。需要新的工具以在与VER相关的高可变性以及负载不确定性的情况下实现灵活可靠的系统。

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