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Simplified Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Plug-in HEVs, Engine Dominant HEVs and Conventional Vehicles in 2012

机译:2012年插电式混合动力汽车,发动机主导型混合动力汽车和常规车辆的生命周期成本简化分析

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The authors use the simplified life cycle cost model developed by CARB staff in their August 7, 2000rnstaff report on battery EVs and HEVs but improve upon it using newer data on battery life andrnmaintenance, and cost data from the government-industry consensus project, the HEV Working Group1.rnIn addition, a high mileage scenario is added. The results show engine-dominant HEVs (known as HEVrn0s) and plug-in HEVs with 20 or 60 mile all electric range (known as PHEV 20s or PHEV 60s) can reachrncost parity with conventional gasoline mid-size vehicles if life cycle costs are considered over a longrnenough period. In fact, life cycle cost parity can be reached at relatively low volume production of 15-40rnthousand vehicles per year and eventually EDVs should have a significant life cycle cost advantage.rnThere are two key reasons for this. First, the dramatic announcements by Toyota, GM, Ford, Nissan,rnHonda, and other OEMs to produce millions of engine dominant hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV 0s) in thernnext 10 years are changing the cost-economics of electro-drive vehicle (EDV) technologies, by reducingrnthe cost of motors and controllers to near the bottom of their cost curves. Second, new test data on nickelrnmetal hydride (NiMH) "energy" batteries are showing much longer life in deep discharge use common tornbattery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in HEVs. Further data also suggests that by using slightlyrnshallower discharges (e.g., 60% or 70% of total pack capacity instead of 80%), many more lifetimerndischarge cycles will result, thereby increasing lifetime miles (and kWhs) from the original pack. Thernauthors conclude PHEVs appear to be a bridging/enabling technology, which by bringing down the costrnof "energy" batteries and large electric motors, will make the business case for BEVs and plug-in hybridrnfuel cell vehicles much stronger. The PHEV 60 analysis is presented here for the first time.
机译:作者使用CARB员工在2000年8月7日关于电池EV和HEV的员工报告中开发的简化的生命周期成本模型,但使用有关电池寿命和维护的最新数据以及政府与行业共识项目HEV的成本数据对其进行了改进工作组1.rn此外,还添加了高里程方案。结果表明,如果考虑到生命周期成本,那么以发动机为主导的混合动力汽车(称为HEVrn0)和全电动范围为20或60英里的插电式混合动力汽车(称为PHEV 20或PHEV 60)可以达到与传统汽油中型车相同的成本在很长一段时间内。实际上,在相对较低的年产量(15-40千辆)的情况下,可以达到生命周期成本的均等,最终EDV应该具有显着的生命周期成本优势。这有两个主要原因。首先,丰田,通用,福特,日产,本田和其他OEM宣布在未来10年内生产数百万台发动机主导的混合电动汽车(HEV 0s)的戏剧性声明,正在改变电动汽车(EDV)的成本经济性)技术,将电动机和控制器的成本降低到接近其成本曲线的底部。其次,有关镍氢(NiMH)“能量”电池的新测试数据显示,在使用深层放电的普通撕裂电池电动汽车(BEV)和插电式混合动力汽车中,其使用寿命更长。进一步的数据还表明,通过使用较浅的放电(例如,总电池组容量的60%或70%,而不是80%),将产生更多的寿命放电循环,从而增加了原始电池组的使用寿命(和kWhs)。作者得出结论,插电式混合动力汽车似乎是一种桥接/使能技术,通过降低成本核算的“能源”电池和大型电动机,将使电动汽车和插电式混合燃料电池汽车的商业前景更加强大。 PHEV 60分析首次在这里展示。

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