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首页> 外文会议>The 20th international electric vehicle symposium and exposition (EVS-20): powering sustainable transportation >Will Hybrid Drivetrains Gain Market Share in the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector Over the Next 5, 10 and 15 Years?
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Will Hybrid Drivetrains Gain Market Share in the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector Over the Next 5, 10 and 15 Years?

机译：混合动力传动系统是否将在未来5年，10年和15年中在中重型汽车领域获得市场份额？

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This paper summarizes the WestStart-CALSTART publication Heavy-Duty Hybrids 2003: Challengesrnand Opportunities. Will hybrids emerge as viable drivetrains for the heavy-duty vehicle industry in thernnext 5–15 years? The answer is yes. Sufficient indicators are in place, and broad enough trends are inrnmotion to make this a reasonable conclusion. It's hard to predict the degree to which hybrid electricrndrivetrains will actually capture market share in the next 5–15 years. Certainly at present, we are at thernvery beginning of the market. The greatest challenge to Hybrid-Electric (HE) Heavy-Duty Vehiclern(HDV) success in the market is the higher incremental cost. Although there are no certainties orrnguarantees, there is a movement toward HD HEVs that may evolve into a sustainable HE market. Thernfollowing conclusions are a digest of the key trends and analysis contained in this paper.rn1. Developments in HE HDVs are part of a wider long-term trend toward the electrification ofrnvehicles of all sizes.rn2. HD HEVs need to be matched to the right duty cycle to accrue substantial fuel savings.rn3. The need to reduce emissions is the driving force behind transit use of non-military HD HEVs.rn4. Onboard power generation and other capabilities unique to HEVs will be a key factor tornovercome higher prices and drive sales in some sectors.rn5. Diesel may overtake natural gas as the most-used fuel in HD HEVs.rn6. Repowers are not likely for the foreseeable future, but may occur in certain Army vehicles.rn7. Maintenance costs for HE HDVs are predictable.
机译：本文总结了WestStart-CALSTART出版物“重型混合动力车2003：挑战与机遇”。在接下来的5至15年内，混合动力车是否会成为重型汽车行业的可行动力传动系统？答案是肯定的。有足够的指标，并且有足够大的趋势在起作用，无法得出合理的结论。很难预测混合动力传动系统在未来5至15年内将真正占领市场份额的程度。当然，目前，我们处于市场的起步阶段。混合动力（HE）重型车辆（HDV）在市场上取得成功的最大挑战是更高的增量成本。尽管没有确定性或保证性，但有朝着高清HEV的方向发展的趋势，它可能会演变成可持续的HE市场。以下结论是对本文主要趋势和分析的摘要。 HE HDV的发展是各种尺寸车辆电动化的长期趋势的一部分。 HD HEV需要匹配正确的占空比，以节省大量燃料。减少排放的需求是非军事高清HEVs过境使用的驱动力。混合动力汽车特有的车载发电和其他功能将成为克服价格上涨并推动某些行业销售的关键因素。在混合动力混合动力汽车中，柴油可能会取代天然气成为最常用的燃料。在可预见的将来不太可能重新武装力量，但可能会发生在某些军车上。 HE HDV的维护成本是可以预测的。

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