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Risk analysis of proposed ferry expansion for the Shanghai Expo 2010

机译:2010年上海世博会拟扩建渡轮的风险分析

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摘要

In order to guarantee the realization of the World Expo passenger water traffic to share 10% of the traffic, a proposal has been made to the Coordination Bureau of Shanghai World Expo to increase the frequency and coverage of ferry service in Huangpu River. Under this background, this paper focuses on evaluating the risk of the expanded ferry and tourism ship system. A simulation model was created to estimate the number of vessel interactions and vessel density and their increases caused by three alternative expansion plans, especially in rush hours. A major question in the approval process is the effect of this expansion on the level of congestion on the waterway and the effect this will have on the safety of all vessels in the World Expo Area. A regression model is presented to evaluate the potential risk reduction measures which depend on six explanatory factors. Detailed risk management recommendations and emergency response measures have been developed and provided to the shanghai dongjiadu MSA.
机译:为了保证世博会客运量占总流量的10%,已向上海世博会协调局提出了增加黄浦江渡轮服务频率和覆盖范围的建议。在这种背景下,本文着重评估扩展渡轮和旅游船系统的风险。创建了一个仿真模型,以估计由三种替代性扩张计划(特别是在高峰时段)引起的船只相互作用和船只密度及其增加的数量。审批过程中的一个主要问题是,这种扩大对水路拥挤程度的影响,以及对世博园区所有船只安全的影响。提出了一个回归模型来评估潜在的降低风险的措施,该措施取决于六个解释性因素。已经制定了详细的风险管理建议和应急措施,并提供给了上海东家渡MSA。

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