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Flood Risk Assessment for Large-scale Dike Systems

机译:大型堤防系统的洪水风险评估

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摘要

The physical consequence of upstream dike performance must be considered in the downstream flood parameter and that provides a rational basis for the processbased flood risk assessment model for large-scale dike systems presented in this paper. In this model, time effects of flood load and impacts of risk transfers among dikes are considered, all the flooding processes are simulated separately and integrated in a Monte Carlo framework, and branching and bounding method is used to identify the main state sequences of dike systems. A case study indicates the proposed method performs well and gives some useful conclusions.
机译:必须在下游洪水参数中考虑上游堤防性能的物理结果,这为本文提出的大型堤防系统基于过程的洪水风险评估模型提供了合理的基础。在该模型中,考虑了洪水荷载的时间效应和堤防之间风险转移的影响,将所有洪水过程分别模拟并集成在蒙特卡洛框架中,并使用分支定界方法识别堤防系统的主要状态序列。 。案例研究表明,该方法性能良好,并给出了有益的结论。

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