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首页> 外文会议>4th International Pipeline Conference, Sep 30-Oct 3, 2002, Calgary >RANDOM FIELD MODELING OF RAINFALL-INDUCED SOIL MOVEMENT
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RANDOM FIELD MODELING OF RAINFALL-INDUCED SOIL MOVEMENT

机译：降雨诱发的土壤运动的随机场模拟

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摘要

Natural oil and gas transmission pipeline networks often traverse regions where potential slow ground movements may affect pipeline structural integrity. One of the primary causes of slow ground movement in any region involves the duration, amount, and intensity of rainfall. The phenomenon of rainfall-induced slow ground movement is characterized by both spatial and temporal variability, and involves uncertainties that are best modeled using a probabilistic methodology. A random field modeling strategy is formulated in this study, in which spatial and temporal correlations between rainfall and ground movement are accounted for. The random field formulation advanced in the current study has a number of significant features and capabilities, including modeling the spatial and temporal relationship between rainfall and slope movement for specified pipeline routes, predicting the likelihood of exceeding slope movement thresholds for various precipitation levels and intensities, and providing maps of risk for slope movement, which can be used as a guide in pipeline route planning, selection, and adaptation strategies for the design and maintenance of oil and gas infrastructure. These capabilities have been implemented and encapsulated into the software tool VSLOPE, which has been tested using monthly rainfall and field data for various locations.
机译：天然石油和天然气输送管道网络经常穿越潜在的缓慢地面运动可能影响管道结构完整性的区域。在任何地区，地面缓慢移动的主要原因之一是降雨的持续时间，数量和强度。降雨引起的地面缓慢移动现象的特征是时空变化，并且涉及不确定性，最好采用概率方法进行建模。在这项研究中制定了一个随机场建模策略，其中考虑了降雨与地面运动之间的时空相关性。当前研究中提出的随机场公式具有许多重要的特征和功能，包括对特定管道路线的降雨和坡度移动之间的时空关系进行建模，预测各种降雨水平和强度超过坡度运动阈值的可能性，并提供坡度移动风险图，可以用作石油和天然气基础设施的设计和维护的管道路线规划，选择和适应策略的指南。这些功能已实现并封装到软件工具VSLOPE中，该工具已使用各个位置的月降雨量和现场数据进行了测试。

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