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首页> 外文会议>4th International Pipeline Conference, Sep 30-Oct 3, 2002, Calgary >PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE ANALYSIS OF PIPELINES
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PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE ANALYSIS OF PIPELINES

机译：管道的概率断裂分析

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摘要

Many pipelines were built before the industry developed material specifications for fracture control. For these older pipelines an essential first step in fracture control is to estimate the existing likelihood of fracture initiation and propagation. It is also desirable for operators to know the size of defects the pipeline can tolerate without causing pipeline fracture. This paper describes a methodology developed for the probabilistic characterization of the fracture initiation and propagation susceptibility of older pipeline segments, made from line pipe exhibiting (by today's standards) low to moderate strength and low notch toughness. It is applicable to ductile, brittle and mixed-mode fracture behaviour. A probabilistic analysis approach is ideally suited to the problem since it offers a way to quantitatively address both the inherent variability in the mechanical properties of line pipe and the uncertainties associated with the various models currently available to determine the conditions necessary to cause crack initiation or to force crack arrest. The method described addresses both of these forms of uncertainty, and also reflects the added uncertainty inherent in trying to estimate material properties for existing lines from small samples of data.
机译：在行业制定用于裂缝控制的材料规范之前，已修建了许多管道。对于这些较旧的管道，裂缝控制中必不可少的第一步是评估裂缝引发和扩展的现有可能性。对于操作员来说，还希望知道在不引起管道破裂的情况下管道可以容忍的缺陷的大小。本文介绍了一种方法开发的方法，该方法用于概率性表征较老的管道段，该管道是由管道（按当今的标准显示）具有中低强度和低缺口韧性而制成的。它适用于延性，脆性和混合模式的断裂行为。概率分析方法非常适合该问题，因为它提供了一种方法来定量处理管线机械性能的内在变化和与当前可用的各种模型相关的不确定性，这些不确定性目前可用于确定引起裂纹萌生或破坏的必要条件。强制破解。所描述的方法解决了这两种形式的不确定性，并且还反映了尝试从少量数据样本估算现有线的材料特性时固有的附加不确定性。

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