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首页> 外文会议>5th International Workshop on Management of the Diamondback Moth and Other Crucifer Insect Pests(第五届小菜蛾及其他十字花科蔬菜害虫治理国际研讨会) >Application of differential equation models to the population dynamics of diamondback moth and its parasitoid,Diadegma semiclausum
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Application of differential equation models to the population dynamics of diamondback moth and its parasitoid,Diadegma semiclausum

机译：微分方程模型在小菜蛾及其寄生的种群动态中的应用

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摘要

Diadegnm semiclausum,an exotic parasitoid,was released in Kenya for biological control of the diamondback moth(DBM),the worst pest of erucifers in East Africa.Population dynamics of the pest and its parasitoids were studied for three years after the release of the parasitoid. The objective of the present work was to study host-parasitoid interactions using existing mathematical models(Lotka-Voherra,Holling-Tanner type 2,Holling Tanner type 3 and Leslie model)and search for mathematical tools that Can be used to predict,on the basis of the available data,the likelihood of success of the biological control agent in the entire East African region.For each model,we estimated model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. Initial values of population size and parameters were randomly chosen. Isaev's classification of insect outbreak types was applied to describe the periods of DBM and parasitoid population dynamics. The DBM trajectory presented periods of cyclical eruptive,pulse eruptive and stability zones whereby the parasitoid was mainly characterized by sustainable curve behaviour.For all sets of parameters,boundaries of confidence domains were determined.Carrying capacity and the coefficient of fecundity for both species were calculated.Levels of population stability were also determined and for almost every model the population stabilized at values of 1.01 DBM per plant and approximately 0.05 parasitoids per plant. Tests on residuals showed that they were normally distributed.Application of the Durbin-Watson criteria for comparison of model outputs and experimental population trajectofies produced a positive correlation with all selected models.Consequently,it was concluded that none of the chosen models is appropriate to explain the population dynamics of either species.
机译：在肯尼亚释放了一种外来寄生虫Diadianm semiclausum，用于对东非最严重的粉虱的小菜蛾（DBM）进行生物控制。研究了该寄生虫释放后三年的种群动态及其寄生现象。本工作的目的是使用现有的数学模型（Lotka-Voherra，Holling-Tanner类型2，Holling Tanner类型3和Leslie模型）研究宿主-拟寄生虫的相互作用，并寻找可用于预测的数学工具。根据现有数据，该生物防治剂在整个东非地区成功的可能性。对于每个模型，我们通过遵循Nelder-Mead的理论和实验时间序列数据集之间的损失函数最小化来估算模型参数多维方法。人口规模和参数的初始值是随机选择的。 Isaev对昆虫暴发类型的分类用于描述DBM和寄生虫种群动态的时期。 DBM轨迹显示了周期性喷发，脉冲喷发和稳定带的周期，其中寄生虫的主要特征是可持续的曲线行为。针对所有参数，确定了置信域的边界，计算了两个物种的承载能力和繁殖力系数还确定了种群稳定性水平，对于几乎每个模型，种群稳定在每株植物1.01 DBM和每株植物约0.05寄生虫的值。对残差的测试表明它们是正态分布的。应用Durbin-Watson标准比较模型输出和实验人口轨迹与所有选定模型均具有正相关性。因此，得出的结论是，所选择的模型都不适合解释两种物种的种群动态。

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