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FLIGHT SAFETY AIRCRAFT RISK: A GROWING PROBLEM

机译：飞行安全飞机的风险：一个日益严重的问题

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In recent years there has been a growing awareness ofrnthe need to have appropriate criteria for protection ofrnaircraft from debris resulting from the flight terminationrnof a malfunctioning space booster. There have beenrnseveral sequences of events that have interacted to bringrnus to the current risk management problem.rnWith the advent of the US initiative to have commonrnflight safety analysis processes and criteria, it wasrnrecognized that the traditional aircraft protectionrnapproach was inadequate. It did not consider the addedrnpublic concern for catastrophic events. While thernprobability may have been small for downing a largerncommercial passenger plane, the public outrage if itrnhappened would not be adequately measured by thernindividual risk to passengers nor the collective (societalrnrisk) presented by a single airplane. Over a period of arnnumber of years the US has developed and evolved arncriterion to address catastrophic risk protection.rnBeginning in the same time period, it was recognizedrnthe assertion that all debris with masses greater than onerngram were lethal to aircraft was unduly conservative.rnOver this same period initiatives have been developed tornrefine aircraft vulnerability models.rnThere were, however, two significant unconservativernassumptions that were made in the early years. It wasrnpresumed that significant risk to aircraft could onlyrnoccur in the launch area. In addition, aircraft riskrnassessments, when they were made were based onrndebris lists designed to protect people on the groundrn(typically debris with an impact kinetic energy greaterrnthan 11 ft-lb).rnGood debris lists for aircraft protection do not yet exist.rnHowever, it has become increasingly clear that evenrnwith partial breakup lists large regions were requiredrnfrom which aircraft flight would be restricted using thernnormal exclusion approaches.rnWe provide a review of these events and an indicationrnof the way forward.
机译：近年来，人们越来越认识到需要有适当的标准来保护飞机免受因故障助推器的飞行终止而造成的碎屑的伤害。发生了许多事件相互作用，导致当前的风险管理问题。随着美国主动制定通用的飞行安全分析程序和标准的倡议，人们认识到传统的航空器保护方法是不够的。它没有考虑到公众对灾难性事件的额外关注。虽然降低一架较大型商业客机的概率可能很小，但如果发生这种情况，公众的愤怒就不能通过对乘客或单个飞机所造成的集体风险（社会风险）的适当衡量来衡量。在过去的许多年中，美国开发并发展了用于解决灾难性风险保护的规则。在同一时期开始，人们认识到，所有质量大于整数的碎片都是对飞机致命的断言。制定了一些阶段性举措以完善飞机的易损性模型。然而，在早期有两个重大的不保守的假设。假定只有在发射区才发生对飞机的重大危险。此外，飞机风险评估是基于旨在保护地面人员的碎片清单（通常具有大于11 ft-lb的冲击动能的碎片）.rn尚无用于保护飞机的良好碎片清单.rn越来越清楚的是，即使有了部分分解清单，也需要使用正常的排除方法来限制飞机的飞行。我们对这些事件进行了回顾，并指出了前进的方向。

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  • 会议地点 Versailles(FR)
  • 作者

    Jerold M. Haber;

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    ACTA, Inc., 2790 Dr., Suite 310, Torrance, CA, 90505, USA, Email:haber@actainc.com;

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