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The Research on Impact of International Trade on China's Economic

机译:国际贸易对中国经济的影响研究

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In this paper, according to logarithmic difference sequence of China's economic growth, import and export, and the establishment of the VAR model test and the relativity of China international trade and economic growth; From 1984 to 2008, this paper discusses the measures impact effect on economic growth, the contribution of the import and export of change caused by impulse response function and variance decomposition (IRF). The results show that in the first phase, variance decomposition GDP by their own fluctuation, and only in the second period from the influence of the effect of export is fully reflect tend to rise, thereafter. After about the sixth period, it gradually becomes stable. From the influence of the effect of export is reflected in the second half, the lakers started in the third quarter, in order to reduce to the greatest extent. After about the sixth period, it gradually becomes stable. The influence from the import of GDP is relatively weak in the first two times, and then rising. After about the sixth period, it often is stable.
机译:本文根据中国经济增长,进出口的对数差异序列,建立VAR模型检验与中国国际贸易与经济增长的相关性;从1984年到2008年,本文讨论了措施对经济增长的影响效应,由脉冲响应函数和方差分解(IRF)引起的变化的进出口贡献。结果表明,在第一阶段,方差分解GDP受到自身波动的影响,只有在第二阶段才能从出口效应的影响中得到充分体现,之后趋于上升。在大约第六阶段之后,它逐渐变得稳定。从出口效应的影响反映在下半年,湖人队在第三季度开始,以最大程度地减少。在大约第六阶段之后,它逐渐变得稳定。 GDP进口的影响在前两次相对较弱,然后上升。在大约第六阶段之后,它通常是稳定的。

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