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首页> 外文会议>Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference;APPEEC 2009 >The Research of Power System Operation Risk Assessment Modeling Based on Cloud Models
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The Research of Power System Operation Risk Assessment Modeling Based on Cloud Models

机译：基于云模型的电力系统运行风险评估建模研究

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摘要

Because there are lots of random and fuzzy uncertainty factors in power system, the certainty model used to be adopted in reliability research were not reasonable. But cloud models theory is a powerful tool to convert numerical quantitative analysis to conceptual qualitative analysis. In this paper on the basis of introduction of cloud models, the parameter and load cloud models in actual operation of power system is proposed and established to solve the uncertainty of the value FOR and the changing of load. And base the model takes the risk assessment by used the RBTS reliability test system and come out the risk indexes represented by cloud model. The result show that system actual operation condition based cloud models suit the Scene actual.
机译：由于电力系统中存在许多随机和模糊的不确定性因素，可靠性研究中采用的确定性模型并不合理。但是云模型理论是将数值定量分析转换为概念定性分析的强大工具。本文在介绍云模型的基础上，提出并建立了电力系统实际运行中的参数云和负荷云模型，以解决FOR值的不确定性和负荷变化的问题。并基于RBTS可靠性测试系统对该模型进行风险评估，得出云模型所代表的风险指标。结果表明，基于系统实际运行状况的云模型适合于现场实际。

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