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首页> 外文会议>ASME international pipeline conference 2008 >MODELLING OF DENT AND GOUGES, AND THE EFFECT ON THE FAILURE PROBABILITY OF PIPELINES
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MODELLING OF DENT AND GOUGES, AND THE EFFECT ON THE FAILURE PROBABILITY OF PIPELINES

机译：凹痕和凿洞的建模，以及对管道故障概率的影响

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One of the main causes of the failure, and resulting casualties, in onshore and offshore transmission pipelines is external interference (also known as 'mechanical damage', or 'third party damage').rnExternal interference can result in a dent, a gouge, or a combination of the two. The combination of dents and gouges is a severe pipeline defect. It creates an unstable stress state at the defect root where work hardening and micro-cracking may be present. This can lead to a variety of immediate and delayed failures in pipelines.rnThe available assessment models for a dent containing a gouge contain significant variability which leads to both conservative predictions of failure pressure and wide scatter when compared to test data. Additionally, these models are used extensively in pipeline risk analysis, and the differing models can cause wide variation in pipeline failure frequency predictions.rnThis paper is a critical evaluation of existing dent/gouge models, using the full scale test database from the 'Pipeline Defect Assessment Manual' (PDAM). It compares two published methodologies for assessing dents containing gouges to determine the most robust model.rnThe paper then uses probabilistic methods to determine the effect of these models on the probability of pipeline failure in a range of pipeline geometries. The paper ends with a gap analysis on dent and gouge models, and identifies requirementsrnfor targeting further research in this area, and also makes recommendations for 'PDAM'.
机译：陆上和海上输油管道故障和造成人员伤亡的主要原因之一是外部干扰（也称为“机械损坏”或“第三方损坏”）。外部干扰会导致凹痕，凿子，或两者结合。凹痕和凿子的组合是严重的管道缺陷。它在缺陷根部产生不稳定的应力状态，可能会出现加工硬化和微裂纹。这可能导致管道中的各种立即和延迟的故障。rn包含凿子的凹痕的可用评估模型包含显着的可变性，与测试数据相比，这导致对故障压力的保守预测和广泛的分散。此外，这些模型广泛用于管道风险分析中，不同的模型可能会导致管道故障频率预测的差异很大。rn本文使用“管道缺陷”中的满量程测试数据库对现有的凹痕/量规模型进行了重要评估。评估手册（PDAM）。它比较了两种公开的方法来评估包含凿子的凹痕，以确定最鲁棒的模型。然后，本文使用概率方法来确定这些模型对一系列管道几何形状中管道故障概率的影响。本文以对凹痕和凿痕模型的缺口分析作为结尾，确定了针对该领域进一步研究的要求，并为“ PDAM”提出了建议。

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