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首页> 外文会议>Biophotonics and New Therapy Frontiers; Progress in Biomedical Optics and Imaging; vol.7 no.35 >PV Solar Electricity: Status and Future
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PV Solar Electricity: Status and Future

机译：光伏太阳能发电：现状与未来

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Within the four main market segments of PV solar electricity there are already three areas competitive today. These are off-grid industrial and rural as well as consumer applications. The overall growth within the past 8 years was almost 40 % p.a. with a "normal" growth of about 18 % p.a. for the first three market segments whereas the grid connected market increased with an astonishing 63 % p.a. The different growth rates catapulted the contribution of grid connected systems in relation to the total market from about one quarter 6 years ago towards more than three quarters today. The reason for this development is basically due to industry-politically induced market support programs in the aforementioned countries. It is quite important to outline under which boundary conditions grid connected systems will be competitive without support programs like the feed in tariff system in Germany, Spain and some more to come in Europe as well as investment subsidies in Japan, US and some other countries. It will be shown that in a more and more liberalized utility market worldwide electricity produced by PV solar electricity systems will be able to compete with their generating cost against peak power prices from utilities. The point of time for this competitiveness is mainly determined by the following facts: 1. Price decrease for PV solar electricity systems leading to an equivalent decrease in the generated cost for PV produced kWh 2. Development of a truly liberalized electricity market 3. Degree of irradiation between times of peak power demand and delivery of PV electricity The first topic is discussed using price experience curves. Some explanations will be given to correlate the qualitative number of 20 % price decrease for doubling cumulative worldwide sales derived from the historic price experience curve with a more quantitative analysis based on our EPIA-Roadmap (productivity increase and ongoing improvements for existing technologies as well as development of new concepts to broaden the product portfolio in coming years). The second topic outlines the most likely development of liberalized electricity markets in various regions worldwide. It will be emphasized that in such markets the future prices for electricity will more and more reflect the different cost for bulk and peak power production. This will not only happen for industrial electricity customers - as already today in many countries - but also for private households. The third topic summarizes the existing data and facts by correlating peak power demand and prices traded in various stock exchange markets with delivered PV kWh. It will be shown that a high degree of correlation is existent. Combining the three topics and postulating reverse net metering the competitiveness of PV solar electricity as described is most likely to occur. The described price decrease of modules will also have a very positive impact on off-grid rural applications, mainly in 3rd world countries. It will be shown that this is strongly advanced due to the development of mini-grids starting from solar home systems - with mini grids looking very similar to on-grid applications in weak grid areas of nowadays electricity network.
机译：如今，在太阳能光伏的四个主要市场领域中，已经有三个领域具有竞争力。这些都是离网工业和农村以及消费者应用程序。在过去的8年中，整体年增长率几乎达到40％。每年约有18％的“正常”增长。前三个市场领域的并网市场每年以惊人的63％的速度增长。从6年前的大约四分之一到如今的四分之三以上，不同的增长率推动了并网系统在整个市场中的贡献。这种发展的原因基本上是由于上述国家/地区的行业政策引发的市场支持计划。概述在没有边界支持的情况下并网系统在没有支持计划的情况下将具有竞争力，例如德国，西班牙等国的关税制度，以及欧洲，日本，美国和其他一些国家的投资补贴。可以看出，在越来越开放的公用事业市场中，由PV太阳能发电系统产生的电力将能够与发电成本相比，与公用事业的峰值电价竞争。这种竞争力的时间点主要由以下事实决定：1.光伏太阳能发电系统的价格下降导致光伏发电的千瓦时发电成本相应下降2.真正开放的电力市场的发展3。高峰用电时间与光伏发电时间之间的辐照第一个问题是使用价格经验曲线来讨论的。将给出一些解释，以将基于历史价格经验曲线得出的全球累计销售额翻番的20％价格下降的定性数字与基于我们的EPIA-Roadmap的更定量分析（生产率的提高和现有技术的持续改进以及开发新概念以在未来几年扩展产品组合）。第二个主题概述了世界各地不同地区电力市场最有可能的发展。需要强调的是，在这样的市场中，未来的电价将越来越多地反映出散装和峰值发电成本的不同。这不仅会发生在工业用电客户（许多国家已经如此），而且也会发生在私人家庭中。第三个主题是通过将各种证券交易所市场上的峰值电力需求和交易价格与交付的光伏千瓦时相关联来总结现有数据和事实。将显示存在高度相关性。结合这三个主题并假设进行反向网表计量，最有可能发生如上所述的PV太阳能发电竞争力。所描述的模块价格下降还将对主要在第三世界国家的离网农村应用产生非常积极的影响。可以看出，由于从太阳能家用系统开始的微型电网的发展，该技术得到了极大的发展-微型电网看起来与当今电网中薄弱电网区域的并网应用非常相似。

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