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How can large-scale integrated surface—subsurface hydrological models be used to evaluate long-term climate change impact on groundwater reserves?

机译:如何使用大规模的地表—地下水文综合模型来评估长期气候变化对地下水储量的影响?

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Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological system often leads to discrepancies in projections. This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 km2), Belgium. Integrated surface-subsurface flow is simulated with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of actual evapotranspiration, improve the representation of interdependent processes like recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios downscaled using a quantile mapping bias-correction technique that, rather than applying a correction only to the mean, also applies a change in the distribution of wet and dry days. For the climatic scenarios considered, the integrated flow simulations show that significant decreases are expected in the groundwater levels and in the surface water flow rates by 2080.
机译:估算气候变化对地下水的影响是水资源专家面临的最困难的挑战之一。一个困难是简化水文系统的表示方法常常会导致投影差异。这项研究为估算气候变化对地下水储量的影响提供了一种改进的方法,该方法将基于物理的地表-地下流模型与比利时盖尔盆地(465 km2)的先进气候变化情景相结合。使用有限元模型HydroGeoSphere模拟了整合的表面-地下流动。 HydroGeoSphere中地表和地下流动方程的同时求解以及实际蒸散量的内部计算,改善了相互依赖过程(如补给)的表示形式,这在气候变化的背景下至关重要。气候变化模拟是通过使用分位数映射偏差校正技术从六个按比例缩小的区域气候模型(RCM)情景中获得的,该技术不仅对均值进行校正,而且还应用了干湿天分布的变化。对于所考虑的气候情景,综合流动模拟表明,到2080年,地下水位和地表水流速预计将显着下降。

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