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Criteria and methodology for loads forecast on Enel Distribuzione MV electrical network

机译：Enel Distribuzione MV电网的负荷预测标准和方法

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Loads forecast is one of the starting points for network planning.rnIn recent years the large spread of distributed generation, with a growth that is not comparable with that of pure "passive" load, has deeply changed the electrical system, even requiring new criteria for loads forecasting process.rnThis paper shows the forecasting process of power flow on HV/MV trasformers, i.e. on the points of interconnection between the transmission and the distribution network. Furthermore, new methods and algorithms, developed and adopted by Enel Distribuzione, are here described.rnIn particular, starting from the energy data, measured on the MV side of HV/MV trasformers, new implementations have been studied in order to separate pure “passive” load from generation, due to their increasingly independent trends, thus allowing a better estimate of energy and power flows on HV / MV transfomers in primary substations.rnFurthermore, regarding to the forecasting process, by estimating the power generation that will be connected in the following years, for each energy source, it will be possible to predict potential saturation problems that may occur in primary substations in the different load / generation scenarios.rnThree different scenarios have been defined: pure “passive” load, load / maximum generation, load / minimum generation, in order to evaluate, for each scenario, the potential saturation problems for the next years with monthly detail at least.rnObviously, the estimate of generation to be connected in the following years is based on available information, thus depending on legislative framework changes. In any case, by studying different scenarios, it is possible to achieve absolutely precautionary results even in case of significant changes in the legislative framework.rnThe methods that have been developed, described in this paper, are based on the opportunities offered by new technologies, with particular regard to energy metering systems installed in Enel Distribuzione primary substations, and on the availability of DG energy generation diagrams.rnFinally, the new methods have been applied for the upgrade of “PRECAR”, the software application used by Enel Distribuzione for energy flows forecast, thus allowing a greater efficiency and reliability of results.
机译：负荷预测是网络规划的起点之一。近年来，分布式发电的广泛传播（其增长与纯“被动”负荷无法相比）深刻地改变了电气系统，甚至需要新的标准负载预测过程。rn本文显示了高压/中压变压器的潮流预测过程，即在输电和配电网络之间的互连点上。此外，这里描述了由Enel Distribuzione开发和采用的新方法和算法。特别是，从在HV / MV变压器的MV侧测量的能量数据开始，已经研究了新的实现方式，以分离纯“无源”来自发电的负荷，由于它们越来越独立的趋势，因此可以更好地估算一次变电站的HV / MV变压器的能量和功率流。rn此外，对于预测过程，通过估算将要连接的发电量在接下来的几年中，对于每种能源，将有可能预测在不同负荷/发电方案下一次变电站中可能发生的潜在饱和问题。定义了三种不同的方案：纯“被动”负荷，负荷/最大发电量，负荷/最小生成量，以便针对每种情况评估至少有每月详细信息的未来几年的潜在饱和问题。通常，未来几年将要连接的发电量的估计是基于现有信息，因此取决于立法框架的变化。无论如何，通过研究不同的方案，即使在立法框架发生重大变化的情况下，也有可能获得绝对的预防性结果。本文所描述的方法是基于新技术提供的机会而开发的，最后，已将新方法用于“ PRECAR”的升级，该方法是Enel Distribuzione的主要应用，用于能源流的软件应用程序的升级。预测，从而提高结果的效率和可靠性。

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