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首页> 外文会议>CIRP design conference on competitive design; 20090330-31; Cranfield(GB) >Long-Run Forecasting of Emerging Technologies with Logistic Models and Growth of Knowledge
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Long-Run Forecasting of Emerging Technologies with Logistic Models and Growth of Knowledge

机译：Logistic模型和知识增长对新兴技术的长期预测

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摘要

In this paper applications of logistic S-curve and component logistics are considered in a framework of long-term forecasting of emerging technologies. Several questions and issues are discussed in connection with the presented ways of studying the transition from invention to innovation and further evolution of technologies. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented and diverse types of competition are discussed. Second, a component logistic model is presented. Third, a hypothesis about the usability of a knowledge growth description and simulation for reliable long-term forecasting is proposed. Some interim empirical results for applying networks of contradictions are given.
机译：在本文中，在对新兴技术进行长期预测的框架中考虑了物流S曲线和零部件物流的应用。结合提出的研究从发明到创新的过渡以及技术的进一步发展的方式，讨论了一些问题。首先，介绍了简单的物流模型的特征，并讨论了各种类型的竞争。其次，提出了组件逻辑模型。第三，提出了关于知识增长描述和仿真用于可靠长期预测的可用性的假设。给出了一些应用矛盾网络的临时实证结果。

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