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首页> 外文会议>Cold regions hydrology in a changing climate >Modelling hydrological consequences of climate change in the permafrost region and assessment of their uncertainty
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Modelling hydrological consequences of climate change in the permafrost region and assessment of their uncertainty

机译：对多年冻土地区气候变化的水文后果建模并评估其不确定性

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摘要

A physically-based, distributed model of runoff generation in the permafrost regions is presented. The model describes processes of snow cover formation, taking into account blowing snow sublimation, snowmelt, freezing and thawing of the ground, water detention by a basin storage, infiltration, evaporation, overland, subsurface and channel flow. An important feature of the model is the detailed description of water and heat transfer within the active layer of soil during its seasonal thawing and freezing. A case study has been carried out for the Pravaya Hetta River basin (the catchment area is 1200 km~2) of Western Siberia within the Lower Ob River basin. The basin is located in tundra and forest-tundra vegetation zones. It has been shown that after precipitation, melt of ground ice is the second largest input to the basin water balance and accounts for about 70% of annual precipitation. Seasonal snow losses due to sublimation during blowing snow transport can reach almost 30% of the maximum snow accumulation. The model has been applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the permafrost basin. Uncertainty of the simulated hydrological consequences of climate change has been assessed by the multi-scenario approach. Simulated runoff response to the projected climate change varies significantly as a result of the uncertainty of the climate change scenario.
机译：提出了基于物理的多年冻土区径流产生的分布式模型。该模型描述了积雪形成的过程，并考虑了吹雪升华，融雪，地面冻结和解冻，盆地蓄水，渗透，蒸发，陆上，地下和河道水流。该模型的一个重要特征是详细描述了土壤活动层在其季节性融化和冻结过程中的水和热传递。西奥伯河下游的西西伯利亚的Pravaya Hetta河流域（流域面积1200 km〜2）进行了案例研究。该盆地位于苔原和森林苔原植被区。研究表明，降水之后，地冰融化是流域水量平衡的第二大投入，约占年降水量的70％。在吹雪运输过程中由于升华导致的季节性降雪量几乎可以达到最大积雪量的30％。该模型已用于评估多年冻土盆地气候变化对水文过程的影响。通过多情景方法评估了气候变化模拟水文后果的不确定性。由于气候变化情景的不确定性，模拟的径流对预计的气候变化的响应差异很大。

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