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首页> 外文会议>Collaborative management of integrated watersheds >ASSESSING LEVEE SYSTEM PERFORMANCE USTNG EXISTING AND FUTURE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS
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ASSESSING LEVEE SYSTEM PERFORMANCE USTNG EXISTING AND FUTURE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS

机译：评估级别系统绩效是否存在以及未来风险分析工具

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摘要

A process was defined to apply risk analysis methodologies to identify potential system-wide hydraulic impacts resulting from modifications to the Sacramento River Flood Control Project (SRFCP). This effort demonstrated that existing risk assessment tools can be applied in a systems context to reveal responses of one region of a system from perturbations to another region. The example application illustrates the complexities and effort required in conducting a system-wide risk analysis. US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) policy, as stated in ER 1105-2-101, "Risk Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Studies" (USACE, 2006a), requires the use of risk analysis and its results in planning flood risk management studies and are to be documented in principal decision documents. The goal of the policy is a comprehensive approach in which the key variables, parameters, and components of flood risk management studies are subject to probabilistic analysis. The benefit of the process for the evaluation of proposed modifications to the SRFCP is an increased understanding of the potential risk inherent in modification alternatives. A second, but no less important goal of this exercise, was to understand more fully what is required to advance the current methods and tools for risk management assessments. Thus, a major purpose of this effort was to identify and assist the development of methods, tools, and guidance for performing and using risk and reliability assessments that match the complexity and frequency of the assessments. An introduction to the next generation of flood risk management tool, HEC-FRM, is presented.
机译：定义了一个过程，以应用风险分析方法来识别由于萨克拉曼多河防洪计划（SRFCP）的修改而对整个系统造成的潜在水力影响。这项工作表明，现有的风险评估工具可以在系统环境中应用，以揭示系统一个区域从扰动到另一区域的响应。该示例应用程序说明了进行系统范围的风险分析所需的复杂性和工作量。如ER 1105-2-101“减少洪水危害研究的风险分析”（USACE，2006a）所述，美国陆军工程兵团（USACE）政策要求在计划洪水风险管理研究时使用风险分析及其结果并应记录在主要决策文件中。该政策的目标是采用一种综合方法，对洪水风险管理研究的关键变量，参数和组成部分进行概率分析。评估对SRFCP的拟议修改的过程的好处是，可以加深对修改备选方案固有的潜在风险的了解。此练习的第二个目标（但同样重要的目标）是更充分地理解推进风险管理评估的当前方法和工具所需具备的条件。因此，这项工作的主要目的是识别和协助开发方法，工具和指南，以执行和使用与评估的复杂性和频率相匹配的风险和可靠性评估。介绍了下一代洪水风险管理工具HEC-FRM。

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  • 会议地点 Sacramento CA(US)
  • 作者

    Michael K Deering; Christopher N. Dunn;

  • 作者单位

    Water Resources Systems, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center, 609 Second Street, Davis, CA 95616;

    rnU.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center, 609 Second Street, Davis, CA 95616;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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