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A Dynamic Competition Simulation for Worldwide Big-size TV Market Using Lotka-Volterra Model

机译:基于Lotka-Volterra模型的全球大型电视市场动态竞争仿真

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Technological innovation is characterized by the substitution of new technologies for full-fledged ones in the development of new products, processes and techniques. Global TV market is seeing a price down-spiral for FPD(Flat Panel Display) -TVs, replacement of CRT by LCD, and consumer's defection to larger screen. The LCD-TV market started in Japan from 2003 and took off globally from 2005. LCD panel production is moving toward larger sizes. In the 35"-39" size market, the price/performance ratio of LCD-TV is better than that of PDP. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand function of worldwide big-size (35"-39") TVs including LCD and PDP with an explicit consideration of market competition. The demand function was estimated using Lotka-Volterra model, a famous competitive diffusion model. The results exhibit a kind of predator-prey relationship, in which the PDP market was hunted by LCD product. In addition, the coefficients of difference equations of Lotka-Volterra model in this analysis are also used to forecast the future market of the big-size LCD and PDP.
机译:技术创新的特点是,在开发新产品,工艺和技术时,用新技术代替了成熟的技术。 FPD(平板显示器)电视,LCD替代CRT以及消费者对大屏幕的背叛,导致全球电视市场价格下跌。 LCD-TV市场从2003年开始在日本,从2005年开始在全球范围内腾飞。LCD面板的生产正朝着更大的尺寸发展。在35“ -39”尺寸的市场中,LCD-TV的性价比要高于PDP。本文的目的是在明确考虑市场竞争的情况下,估算包括LCD和PDP在内的全球大型(35“ -39”)电视的需求函数。使用著名的竞争扩散模型Lotka-Volterra模型估计需求函数。结果显示出一种食肉动物与猎物的关系,在这种关系中,PDP市场被LCD产品所吸引。此外,在此分析中,Lotka-Volterra模型的差分方程系数也可用于预测大尺寸LCD和PDP的未来市场。

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