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Statistical method for the evaluation of railway systems modifications

机译:铁路系统改造评估的统计方法

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摘要

Railway production plans daily face random events. Therefore, before setting up modifications for the railway system (changing the network, new signalling system, new timetable, etc.), its robustness to stochastic events must be estimated. Tests cannot actually be carried out, which is why the SNCF uses a traffic simulator developed by its research department. Up to now, the timetable robustness has been estimated by considering a few small incidents and their simulated consequences on train delays. The new approach we are working on consists of taking into account the stochastic dimension in the evaluation of robustness. The methodology is divided into three parts: 1. Identifying randomness to be taken into account when evaluating robustness 2. Studying the robustness of the railway system: 1) determine experimental design 2) carry out simulations 3) aggegrate results 3. Evaluating the lack of precision in the results The aim of this project is to develop the required statistical methods and to design a decision tool following the three steps above. It will help the infrastructure managers to evaluate, in a statistical manner, the robustness of various railway system configurations.
机译:铁路生产计划每天都会面临随机事件。因此,在对铁路系统进行修改(更改网络,新的信号系统,新的时间表等)之前,必须先评估其对随机事件的鲁棒性。测试实际上无法进行,这就是SNCF使用其研究部门开发的流量模拟器的原因。到目前为止,已经通过考虑一些小事件及其对火车延误的模拟影响来估计时间表的鲁棒性。我们正在研究的新方法包括在评估鲁棒性时考虑随机因素。该方法分为三个部分:1.确定评估鲁棒性时要考虑的随机性2.研究铁路系统的鲁棒性:1)确定实验设计2)进行模拟3)汇总结果3.评估缺乏结果的准确性本项目的目的是按照上述三个步骤开发所需的统计方法并设计决策工具。这将帮助基础架构管理者以统计方式评估各种铁路系统配置的健壮性。

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