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Groundwater temperature as a tracer to estimate anthropogenic impacts: past, present and future

机译：地下水温度作为估算人为影响的示踪剂：过去，现在和未来

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We evaluated the potential variations of aquifer temperature attributed to anthropogenic effects in the past, present, and future in the Sendai Plain, Japan. To simulate the heat transport in the subsurface layers, the USGS numerical code (VS2DH) was used. For the climate predictions, HADCM3, M1R0C and ECHAM5 models under the A2, A1B and Bl scenarios were used. The overall results from nine scenarios estimate 0.7-2.1°C subsurface temperature change in 2100 at 12 m depth which is notably higher than the past urbanization effect seen in Sendai. Moreover, groundwater temperature was considered as a proxy to develop a relationship between urbanization level and ground-surface temperature change. Results suggest that approximately 0.6°C ground surface temperature reduction can be achieved in the long-term by reducing the urban ratio by 10% in highly urbanized areas. These results imply the necessity of considering aquifer temperature variations attributed to climate change in habitat restoration programmes.
机译：我们评估了日本仙台平原过去，现在和将来由于人为影响而引起的含水层温度的潜在变化。为了模拟地下层中的热传递，使用了USGS数值代码（VS2DH）。对于气候预测，使用了A2，A1B和B1情景下的HADCM3，M1R0C和ECHAM5模型。九种情景的总体结果估计2100年12m深度处的地下温度变化为0.7-2.1°C，明显高于仙台市过去的城市化效应。此外，地下水温度被认为是发展城市化水平与地表温度变化之间关系的代名词。结果表明，通过将高度城市化地区的城市比例降低10％，可以长期实现约0.6°C的地表温度降低。这些结果表明在生境恢复计划中必须考虑归因于气候变化的含水层温度变化。

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