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Smoothed Prediction of the Onset of Tree Stem Radius Increase Based on Temperature Patterns

机译：基于温度模式的树木茎半径增加开始的平滑预测

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摘要

Possible changes of the growing season of trees would have significant consequences on forest production. Predicting the onset of tree growth on the basis of climate records can be used for estimating the magnitude of such changes. Conventional methods for estimating the onset of tree growth use cumulative temperature sums. These estimates, however, are quite coarse, and raise questions about making better use of the weather information available. We approach the problem of predicting the onset of tree growth with a predictor based on a combination of a k-nearest neighbor regressor and a linear regressor. The inputs are weighted sums of daily temperatures, where the weights are determined by a subset of Bernstein polynomials chosen with a variable selection methodology. The predictions are smoothed for consecutive days to give more accurate results. We compare our proposed solution to the more conventional approach. The proposed solution is found to be better.
机译：树木生长期的可能变化将对森林生产产生重大影响。根据气候记录预测树木生长的开始可用于估计这种变化的幅度。估计树木生长开始的常规方法使用累积温度总和。但是，这些估计值是相当粗略的，并引发了有关如何更好地利用可用天气信息的问题。我们采用基于k最近邻回归和线性回归的组合的预测器来预测树木生长的开始。输入是每日温度的加权总和，其中权重由使用变量选择方法选择的伯恩斯坦多项式的子集确定。连续几天对预测进行平滑处理，以得出更准确的结果。我们将我们提出的解决方案与更常规的方法进行比较。发现提出的解决方案更好。

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  • 来源
    《Discovery science》|2008年|100-111|共12页
  • 会议地点 Budapest(HU);Budapest(HU)
  • 作者

    Mikko Korpela; Harri Maekinen; Mika Sulkava; Pekka Noejd; Jaakko Hollmen;

  • 作者单位

    Helsinki Institute for Information Technology, Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Information and Computer Science, P.O. Box 5400, FI-02015 TKK, Espoo, Finland;

    Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla), Vantaa Research Unit, P.O. Box 18, FI-01301 Vantaa, Finland;

    Helsinki Institute for Information Technology, Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Information and Computer Science, P.O. Box 5400, FI-02015 TKK, Espoo, Finland;

    Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla), Vantaa Research Unit, P.O. Box 18, FI-01301 Vantaa, Finland;

    Helsinki Institute for Information Technology, Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Information and Computer Science, P.O. Box 5400, FI-02015 TKK, Espoo, Finland;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 人工智能理论;
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