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Problems Reconciling Probabilistic and Deterministic Reserve Classifications and Evaluations

机译：调和概率和确定性储量分类与评估的问题

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The current SPE/WPC definitions for reserves quantified byrnprobabilistic methods are ambiguous and largely inconsistentrnwith deterministic criteria. Probabilities are least well definedrnand most subjective at the extremes of the ranges of outcomes.rnSince reserve definitions are meant to provide consistencyrnacross evaluators and evaluations, the current definitions arernnot workable. When defining reserves, volumes should firstrnbe classified into a category. A probabilistic analysis can thenrnbe made of the uncertainty in each category, and a centralrnestimate of Proved reported. When probabilistic analyses arernused to determine value, the same restraints are not necessary,rnbut the same wariness of the extremes of the distributionsrnshould be applied.

机译：当前通过概率方法量化的储量的SPE / WPC定义是模棱两可的，并且与确定性标准不一致。在结果范围的极端情况下，对概率的定义最少，而主观性最高。由于储备金定义旨在为评估人员和评估人员提供一致性，因此当前的定义不可行。在定义储量时，应首先将数量分类。然后可以对每个类别中的不确定性进行概率分析，并报告集中的Proved。当使用概率分析来确定值时，没有必要使用相同的约束条件，但是应该对分布的极端值进行相同的警惕。

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来源
《Energy economics - commerce》|2001年|p.1-6|共6页
会议地点 Dallas TX(US);Dallas TX(US)
作者
Dwayne C. Purvis; Richard F. Strickland;
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作者单位

Cawley, Gillespie Associates;

Cawley, Gillespie Associates;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类能源工业、动力工业;
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Problems Reconciling Probabilistic and Deterministic Reserve Classifications and Evaluations

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