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The Determinants of Oil and Gas Reserves Additions: Empirical Evidence from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Region from 1977 to 1998

机译:决定石油和天然气储量增加的因素:来自1977年至1998年美国墨西哥湾外大陆架(OCS)地区的经验证据

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This paper presents a model of new petroleum reserves in thernGulf of Mexico OCS region from 1977 to 19981. The modelrnhas three distinct components: the effectiveness of drilling atrnfinding reserves (drilling success rate), the effectiveness ofrnsuccessful drilling at adding new petroleum reservesrn(petroleum productivity rate), and the number of wells drilledrnto find new reserves (drilling rate). Each component isrnspecified as a function of several competing factors torndetermine the extent to which each determinant affects reservernadditions on the OCS. The model equations are estimatedrnusing OCS data on reserves and oil and gas wells drilled fromrn1977-1998. The empirical results indicate a statisticallyrnsignificant evidence of diminishing returns as drillingrnincreases on the OCS. The estimated elasticities of oil and gasrnreserves additions with respect to resource depletion are bothrnvery elastic. However, the responsiveness of new oil and gasrnreserves to economic incentives is significantly inelastic forrnoil and gas reserves. The results show that the average impactrnof technical change, economic, resource depletion, andrnprospect highgrading on oil reserve additions is a net gain ofrnabout 9.2% per year between 1977 and 1998. However, the netrnannual average impact of these competing factors on new nonassociatedrngas reserves is a decrease of 3.3 percent per year.
机译:本文提出了1977年至19981年墨西哥OCS海湾地区新石油储量的模型。该模型具有三个不同的组成部分:钻探发现储量的有效性(钻井成功率),成功钻进增加新石油储量的有效性(石油生产率)率),以及为找到新储量而钻探的井数(钻探率)。根据几个竞争因素确定每个组成部分,以确定每个决定因素影响OCS上储备金的程度。模型方程是使用OCS数据(1977-1998年间钻探的储量和油气井)估算的。实证结果表明,随着OCS钻井量的增加,收益递减的统计意义不大。相对于资源枯竭而言,油气储量的估计弹性都非常有弹性。但是,新的油气储量对经济刺激的反应是显着的无弹性的甲醛和天然气储量。结果表明,在1977年至1998年之间,技术变化,经济,资源枯竭和高级前景对石油储备增加的平均净收益为每年约9.2%。然而,这些竞争因素对新的非伴生气的净年度影响为每年减少3.3%。

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