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Property Evaluation-A Return to First Principles

机译：物业评估-重返第一原则

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A lesson from college physics: If you get lost, start over atrnF = ma (force = mass x acceleration). We can use that samernstrategy for property evaluation where similar first principlesrnapply.rnIn a survey sponsored by the SPEE, respondents say theyrnuse discount rates of 20% or more. First principles tell us thatrnthe discount rate and the reinvestment rate should be thernsame. Using over a century of data, Siegel's STOCKS FORrnTHE LONG RUN shows that average returns for companiesrnhave been 5% after tax and after inflation. Not 20%. EitherrnSiegel errs or respondents have no clue.rnConsultants often raise discount rates to account for risks.rnSay the uncertainty for a project lies mostly in the cost to getrnproduction started. Raising the discount rate to account forrncost uncertainty affects every yearly cash flow except the onernwith which we're uncomfortable. Initial investment remainsrnvirtually untouched by the higher discount rate. First principlesrntell us that discount rates measure time value of money,rnnot risks.rnSome analysts do FMV determinations failing to recognizernthe effects of competition. The identification and ramificationsrnof the Winner's Curse enlighten us that a winningrnoffer is not a reliable value estimate. First principles teach usrnthat an auction winner because of his high side bias cannotrnclaim to be "equally knowledgeable," a basic phrase to thernFMV definition.rnMisuse of the Capital Asset Pricing Model has misleadrnmany executives into setting unreasonably high target returns.rnAcademics signed on to a simple formula that they claimedrncaptured the subjective investment decision making practicesrnof a hundred million individuals. First principles inform usrnthat no one has found such a formula because human behaviorrnis unpredictable.rnThe paper describes these and a dozen other similarrnevaluation problems.
机译：大学物理课程：如果您迷路了，请从atrnF = ma（力=质量x加速度）开始。在SPEE发起的一项调查中，被调查者表示他们使用20％或更高的折现率，因此我们可以将相同的策略用于财产评估。第一原则告诉我们贴现率和再投资率应相同。 Siegel的STOCKS FORRNTHE LONG RUN使用一个多世纪的数据显示，税后和通货膨胀后，公司的平均回报率为5％。不是20％。无论是西格尔（Siegel）错误还是被调查者都不知道。顾问通常会提高折现率以应对风险。说项目的不确定性主要在于开始生产的成本。提高折现率以解决成本不确定性的影响会影响每年的现金流量，但我们不满意的除外。较高的折现率几乎没有影响到最初的投资。第一原则告诉我们贴现率是衡量货币的时间价值，而不是风险。一些分析师所做的FMV确定未能认识到竞争的影响。获胜者诅咒的确定和后果使我们意识到，获胜者诅咒不是一个可靠的价值估算。第一原则告诉我们，拍卖赢家由于偏执偏见而不能称其为“知识渊博”，这是FMV定义的基本措辞。滥用资本资产定价模型误导了许多高管设定不合理的高目标收益。rn他们声称获得一个主观简单的投资决策的简单公式-亿人。第一原理告诉我们，没有人能找到这样的公式，因为人类的行为是不可预测的。本文描述了这些以及其他十二个类似的评估问题。

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