A Fuzzy-pattern Approach to Flood Classifying and Predicting

机译：洪水分类预报的模糊模式方法

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Scientific flood management is essential to predict and master some flood characteristics in real-time flood control dispatching. Previously, statistic analysis and neural networks were used in quantitative flood forecast, which is insufficient for real-time flood control operation. The objective of this study is to apply systemically fuzzy theory to flood classifying and predicting according to certain flood features. Based on fuzzy cluster iteration algorithm, history floods are classified into several specified groups, and by cluster validity evaluating, the optimal partition number and corresponding cluster centers may be obtained. Then taking the optimal cluster centers as the criterion of recognizing flood type and importing fuzzy pattern recognition theory, the real-time flood type may be predicted. Finally, the approach is applied to flood classifying and recognizing of Huanren reservoir basin and the results demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of this method.

机译：科学的洪水管理对于实时防洪调度中的洪水特征预测和掌握至关重要。以前，统计分析和神经网络被用于定量洪水预报中，这对于实时的洪水控制操作是不够的。本研究的目的是将系统的模糊理论应用到根据某些洪水特征进行洪水分类和预报中。基于模糊聚类迭代算法，历史洪水被分为几个指定的组，并通过聚类有效性评估，可以获得最优的分区数和相应的聚类中心。然后，以最优聚类中心为判别洪水类型的准则，并引入模糊模式识别理论，可以对实时洪水类型进行预测。最后，将该方法应用于Hua仁水库流域的洪水分类识别中，结果证明了该方法的可行性和实用性。

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来源
《Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS(International Association of Hydrological Sciences)-PUB》|2006年|235-243|共9页
会议地点 Beijing(CN)
作者
Zhang Gaihong; Zhou Huicheng;
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作者单位

School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类水资源调2查与水利规划;
关键词
classifying and predicting; flood type; fuzzy theory; real-time operation;

机译：分类和预测；洪水类型模糊理论实时操作;

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A Fuzzy-pattern Approach to Flood Classifying and Predicting

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