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首页> 外文会议>Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS(International Association of Hydrological Sciences)-PUB >Assessment of Hydrologic Model Structure Based on Parameter Identifiability
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Assessment of Hydrologic Model Structure Based on Parameter Identifiability

机译：基于参数可识别性的水文模型结构评估

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摘要

The uncertainty on structures of hydrologic models results in uncertainties on estimation of parameter values and simulation or prediction results of models. One of the most direct ways to reduce model uncertainty is to improve model structure. Traditionally, this improvement dependeds on modeller's intuitions and experiences, not quantitative indexes. Parameters are always set to correspond to model components. The identifiability of parameters is related intimately to the rationality of model structure. Based on the relationship between them, this paper presents an index of parameters identifiability as a measurement of the rationality of model structure. The measurement can be used as the guiding information for adjusting model structure. GRJ model is selected as the case study here. Parameters identifiabilities of different versions of GRJ models are calculated as the measurements of evaluating model structures. Some suggestions for improving model structures are, presented based on the analysis result at the end.
机译：水文模型结构的不确定性导致参数值的估计以及模型的模拟或预测结果的不确定性。减少模型不确定性最直接的方法之一就是改善模型结构。传统上，此改进取决于建模者的直觉和经验，而不是量化指标。参数始终设置为与模型组件相对应。参数的可识别性与模型结构的合理性密切相关。基于它们之间的关系，本文提出了一种参数可识别性指标，作为衡量模型结构合理性的指标。该测量值可用作调整模型结构的指导信息。这里选择GRJ模型作为案例研究。计算不同版本的GRJ模型的参数可识别性，作为评估模型结构的度量。最后根据分析结果提出了一些改进模型结构的建议。

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