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首页> 外文会议>Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS(International Association of Hydrological Sciences)-PUB >Application of M-C and JC Methods on Uncertainties Analysis in Groundwater Resources Valuation
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Application of M-C and JC Methods on Uncertainties Analysis in Groundwater Resources Valuation

机译：M-C和JC方法在不确定性分析中的应用

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Owing to inadequate data and spatial variability of aquifer parameters, there are a lot of uncertainties in groundwater resources evaluation, leading to risk. Uncertainty analysis provides important information for making decision on groundwater resources development and management. However, the commonly used traditional deterministic models can not deal with these uncertainties, hence reliability of the evaluated results. This paper proposes JC and Monte-Carlo (M-C) methods for reliability analysis, and takes into account different probability density function (PDF) of the main random variables. The new approach is applied in Jining City, Shandong Province which presents a good case study for groundwater resources evaluation with the associated uncertainties. An attempt is made to explain the effects of coefficient variation on the JC method. The results obtained from JC method suggest that JC method is feasible, reasonable and more reliable for uncertainty analysis as compared to traditional deterministic model approach and M-C method.
机译：由于数据不足和含水层参数的空间变异性，地下水资源评估存在很多不确定性，从而导致风险。不确定性分析为决策地下水资源开发和管理提供重要信息。但是，常用的传统确定性模型无法处理这些不确定性，因此评估结果的可靠性。本文提出了JC和蒙特卡洛（M-C）方法进行可靠性分析，并考虑了主要随机变量的不同概率密度函数（PDF）。该新方法在山东省济宁市得到了应用，为地下水资源评估及其相关不确定性提供了很好的案例研究。试图解释系数变化对JC方法的影响。从JC方法获得的结果表明，与传统的确定性模型方法和M-C方法相比，JC方法对于不确定性分析是可行，合理和可靠的。

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