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首页> 外文会议>Flood Risk Management: Hazards, Vulnerability and Mitigation Measures; NATO Science Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences; vol.67 >REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE-To be included in Future Flood Risk Analysis?
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REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE-To be included in Future Flood Risk Analysis?

机译：区域气候变化-包括在未来的洪水风险分析中吗？

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摘要

Floods and other seemingly weather related natural disasters have been increasing not only by reported damage but also by frequency and intensity (www.munichre.com). As global climate models predict a clear increase in temperature and weather extremes (IPCC 2001) due to increase in the atmospheric concentration of green house gases (GHG) it is obvious to relate the reported increase in flood risk to climate change. However, extreme precipitation is neither correctly modelled in existing global models nor correctly covered in existing statistical analysis of the past due to its inherent variability in space and time. This is specially true for the data base of future risk analysis as along with the spatial extend of typical flood prone catchments the need for regional and local estimates of extreme precipitation is increasingly important. New methods as well as new combinations of existing methods are required to address climate change related flood risk on the regional level.
机译：洪水和其他看似与天气有关的自然灾害不仅通过报告的破坏而且在频率和强度上都在增加（www.munichre.com）。由于全球气候模型预测，由于大气中温室气体（GHG）浓度的增加，极端温度和极端天气会明显增加（IPCC 2001），因此很明显，已将洪水风险的增加与气候变化联系起来。但是，由于极端降水的时空固有变化性，因此既不能在现有的全球模型中正确建模，也不能在过去的现有统计分析中正确涵盖。对于未来风险分析的数据库尤其如此，因为典型洪灾流域的空间范围不断扩大，因此需要对区域和当地的极端降水进行估算越来越重要。需要新方法以及现有方法的新组合来解决区域一级与气候变化有关的洪水风险。

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