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Modelling and decision making in water resource management

机译：水资源管理中的建模与决策

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Water resource systems modelling is a powerful tool to support evidence-based decision making in water management. Traditionally, water management decision making has been based on a single discipline rather than a multi-disciplinary and integrative approach involving physical, environmental, economic and socio-cultural dimensions. Water management has many of the characteristics of "wicked problems" -decisions are always made in an environment of great uncertainty, complexity and imperfect knowledge. To take into account this context, water management decision making must adopt a "whole-of-system and adaptive" approach that draws from a number of disciplines and can adapt to the continuously changing environmental, economic and social imperatives. Scenario planning provides a flexible and adaptive framework to couple modelling and science with decision making through an on-going collaborative partnership between decision makers and modellers. This is the opposite approach to the traditional one-off periodic planning activity which attempts to eliminate uncertainty from any strategic decision making. Integration of water resource modelling and decision making entails two dimensions - integration of the water cycle, economics and environmental modelling processes and integration of modelling with stakeholder support - a wide array of the models available to support one or more of these processes are usually not integrated. The modelling framework needed to support decision making must be selected to meet the needs of the specific system and nature of decisions supported. As such, a generic modelling framework must be constructed to integrate the multiplicity of physical, economic and environmental processes specific to each system. Two case studies are presented to illustrate the application of this scenario planning approach to supporting water management decisions: the Musi sub-basin, Andhra Pradesh, India, and the South Creek catchment, Sydney, Australia. In each case the nature of the decion-making environment, the scenario analysis and modelling framework are presented with a summary analysis of results and lessons learned. There are several prerequisites for this decion-making framework to succeed, including receptive institutions and a requirement for independent scrutiny, transparency and a sound modelling and scientific methodology.
机译：水资源系统建模是支持水管理中基于证据的决策的有力工具。传统上，水管理决策是基于单一学科而不是涉及自然，环境，经济和社会文化维度的多学科综合方法。水资源管理具有“严重问题”的许多特征-决策总是在不确定性，复杂性和知识不完善的环境中做出的。考虑到这种情况，水管理决策必须采用“全系统，自适应”的方法，该方法取材于许多学科，并且能够适应不断变化的环境，经济和社会需求。方案规划提供了灵活的自适应框架，通过决策者和建模者之间持续的合作伙伴关系，将建模与科学与决策结合在一起。这与传统的一次性定期计划活动相反，后者试图消除任何战略决策中的不确定性。水资源建模与决策的集成需要两个维度-水循环，经济与环境建模流程的集成以及利益相关者支持下的建模集成-通常不集成用于支持其中一个或多个流程的多种模型。必须选择支持决策所需的建模框架，以满足特定系统的需求和所支持决策的性质。因此，必须构建通用的建模框架以集成特定于每个系统的多种物理，经济和环境过程。提出了两个案例研究，以说明该情景规划方法在支持水管理决策中的应用：印度安得拉邦的穆西盆地和澳大利亚悉尼的南溪流域。在每种情况下，决策制定环境的性质，方案分析和建模框架都将对结果和经验教训进行汇总分析。这个决策框架要取得成功，有几个先决条件，包括接受机构，以及对独立审查，透明性和健全的建模与科学方法的要求。

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