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Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

机译：气候变化的区域水文影响：对印度水资源管理的影响

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摘要

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.
机译：气候变化最有可能给发展中国家已经压力很大的水系统带来额外的压力。气候变化与水文循环具有内在联系，预计将导致区域水资源系统发生重大变化，因此需要采取适应和减缓措施。例如，温度升高很可能会改变降水模式，从而导致区域水供应量的变化，农作物和植被的蒸发蒸腾的需水量，洪水和干旱的极端性以及水质。因此，有必要对气候变化对区域水文影响进行全面评估。全球气候模型模拟提供了对气候系统的未来预测，其中考虑了外部强迫的变化，例如大气中的二氧化碳和气溶胶，尤其是人为排放造成的变化。但是，此类模拟通常在粗略范围内运行，并且不具备再现区域水文过程的能力。本文总结了有关气候变化对区域水文学影响评估的最新研究，解决了规模和物理过程失配问题。特别注意水的供应，灌溉需求和水质的变化。本文还描述了为解决预测中的不确定性而开发的方法，这些预测是由于对人为排放的未来演变的不完全了解以及使用多种气候模型而导致的。还讨论了调查区域水文变量历史观测变化的可能原因的方法。为印度地区提供了所有上述方法的插图，以专门帮助印度进行水管理。

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  • 会议地点 Paris(FR)
  • 作者

    ARPITA MONDAL; P.P. MUJUMDAR;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India;

    Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India,Divecha Center for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India;

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