• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>HydroVision 2008 conference technical papers >ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 10,000 YEAR FLOOD AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD
【24h】

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 10,000 YEAR FLOOD AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD

机译：10,000年洪水与可能的最大洪水之间的关系

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In many jurisdictions, the use of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is mandated as the upperrnlimit extreme event for assessing the safety of a dam that could present an unacceptably highrnrisk to the public or the environment. It is assumed that this deterministically derived flood eventrnis superior to extreme floods determined using probabilistic approaches. Indeed, the literaturernhas shown that extrapolating flood events more than two to four times the historical record willrnlead to inaccuracies.rnHowever, this does not necessarily mean that the PMF is an inherently more accurate methodrnof establishing an extreme event. The theoretical relationship between the PMF and the 10,000rnyear flood was explored in an attempt to establish the validity of probabilistic assessments forrndefining extreme events, particularly in reference to the use of these events in dam safety riskrnassessments. The establishment of a theoretical relationship between the two extreme eventsrnalso serves as a tool to check the reasonability of extreme event estimates. This later functionrnmay be of significant economic benefit for some dam owners to avoid either dangerously underrndesigning or wastefully over designing spillway capacity.rnThis paper presents a method to analyze the ratio of PMF to the 10,000 year flood based onrnwidely accepted practices used in Canada and the USA. Using accepted meteorological andrnhydrological principles, a theoretical relationship between the two extreme flood estimates wasrnestablished. The establishment of this theoretical relationship has several important implicationsrn1. The estimated 10,000 year event is at least as reliable as the PMF given that there is a clearrntheoretical relationship between the two methods of extreme event estimation. This hasrnsignificant implications with respect to dam safety risk analyses and, in some jurisdictions,rnthe selection process for defining the Inflow Design Flood (IDF)rn2. In establishing a PMF estimate, it is now possible to undertake a check on thernreasonableness of the results of the assessment. For example, if the ratio between the PMFrnand the 10,000 year flood falls outside of the range reported in this paper, a more detailedrninvestigation should be performedrn3. The results indicate that the use of a percentage of the PMF for selection of the IDF, in thernmisguided assumption that the PMF is a more accurate estimation of an extreme event,rnresults in a variable and unquantifiable standard of protection for the public.rn4. In some cases, the costs associated with undertaking a full PMF assessment many bernavoided simply by using a factored 10,000 year estimate as a reasonable approximation ofrnthe PMF.
机译：在许多辖区中，使用“可能的最大洪灾”（PMF）作为评估可能对公众或环境造成不可接受的高风险的大坝安全性的极限极端事件是强制性的。假定这种确定性推导的洪水事件优于使用概率方法确定的极端洪水。确实，文献已经表明，将洪水事件推算为历史记录的两倍以上至四倍会导致不准确。然而，这并不一定意味着PMF本质上是建立极端事件的更准确的方法。探索了PMF和10,000 rnyear洪水之间的理论关系，以试图确定概率评估对定义极端事件的有效性，特别是在大坝安全风险评估中使用这些事件。在两个极端事件之间建立理论关系也可以用作检查极端事件估计的合理性的工具。对于某些大坝所有者来说，避免使用危险的设计不足或浪费地设计溢洪道容量可能会带来重大的经济利益。本文提出了一种基于加拿大和美国广泛接受的做法来分析PMF与10,000年洪水的比率的方法。 。使用公认的气象水文原理，建立了两个极端洪水估计之间的理论关系。这种理论关系的建立具有几个重要的意义。考虑到两种极端事件估计方法之间存在明确的理论联系，估计的10,000年事件至少与PMF一样可靠。这对大坝安全风险分析以及在某些辖区中定义入库设计洪水（IDF）的选择过程rn2具有重大意义。在建立PMF估算时，现在可以检查评估结果的合理性。例如，如果PMFrn与10,000年洪水之间的比率超出了本文报道的范围，则应进行更详细的调查3。结果表明，在误导性假设（即PMF是对极端事件的更准确估计）的误导性假设中，使用一定百分比的PMF来选择IDF，这会导致对公众的保护具有可变且不可量化的标准。在某些情况下，通过使用因子分解的10,000年估算作为PMF的合理近似值，许多人完全避免了与进行完整的PMF评估有关的成本。

著录项

  • 来源
  • 会议地点 Sacramento CA(US)
  • 作者

    Ross D. Zhou; C. Richard Donnelly; David G. Judge;

  • 作者单位

    Hatch Energy, 4342 Queen Street, P.O. Box 1001, Niagara Falls, Ontario, L2E 6W1, 905-374-0701 ext. 5279, rzhou@hatchenergy.com;

    rnHatch Energy, 4342 queen Street, P.O. Box 1001, Niagara Falls, Ontario, L2E 6W1, 905-374-0701, ext. 5303, rdonnelly@hatchenergy.com;

    rnHatch Energy, 4342 Queen Street, P.O. Box 1001, Niagara Falls, Ontario, L2E 6W1, 905-374-0701 ext. 5402, djudge@hatchenergy.com;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 水力发电;水能利用、水电站工程;
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号