• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>INCOSE 2009 symposium: East meets west: the human dimension to systems engineering >The Human Element of Decision Making in SystemsEngineers: A Focus on Optimism
【24h】

The Human Element of Decision Making in SystemsEngineers: A Focus on Optimism

机译：系统工程师决策中的人为因素：以乐观为重点

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Biases continue to be an important aspect of human judgment and decision makingrnbecause they can lead to unfavorable outcomes. Optimism bias is one type of bias that is oftenrnoverlooked because of its association with good health and positive outcomes. However, thernexistence of optimism bias in human judgment can be very damaging especially when it distortsrna person’s view of future events.rnIn order to better understand optimism bias we explore the benefits and downsides of optimismrnas well as some empirically-based origins of both optimism and pessimism. This provides arnbackdrop for a methodology for quantifying optimism and pessimism using the Brier scorerndeveloped for calibrating weather reporters and a discussion about how sports bookies makernwell-calibrated decisions. Results are explored from an optimism survey given to a cohort ofrneighty systems engineers, which ultimately portray the degree to which optimism bias influencesrndecision making in large projects. Further exploration of the key differences in optimism acrossrnprofessions helps distinguish motivational factors and characteristics of well-calibratedrnprofessions. We also present results from a calibration exercise, designed to infer if suchrnactivities can be adopted to assist systems engineering estimation. Finally, we providernprescriptive advice on how individual decision makers can better manage their optimism andrnbecome more realistic.
机译：偏见仍然是人类判断和决策的重要方面，因为它们可能导致不利的结果。乐观偏见是一种经常被忽视的偏见，因为它与良好的健康状况和积极的结果相关联。但是，乐观偏见在人类判断中的存在可能会造成极大的破坏，尤其是当它扭曲了人们对未来事件的看法时。为了更好地理解乐观偏见，我们探索了乐观主义的益处和缺点以及乐观主义和悲观主义的一些基于经验的起源。这为使用用于校准天气记者的Brier分数量化乐观主义和悲观主义的方法提供了背景知识，并讨论了体育博彩公司如何做出正确校准的决定。从对一组智能系统工程师进行的乐观调查中探索了结果，该调查最终描述了乐观偏差对大型项目决策的影响程度。对跨职业乐观的关键差异的进一步探索有助于区分动机因素和经过良好校准的职业的特征。我们还提供了校准练习的结果，旨在推断是否可以采用此类活动来协助系统工程估计。最后，我们提供有关个体决策者如何更好地管理自己的乐观主义并变得更加现实的规范性建议。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号