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首页> 外文会议>2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会）论文集 >Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Changes in RMB Exchange Rate on Imports and Exports Trade in Hei Long Jiang Province
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Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Changes in RMB Exchange Rate on Imports and Exports Trade in Hei Long Jiang Province

机译：人民币汇率变动对黑龙江省进出口贸易影响的实证分析

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摘要

This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate changes on imports and exports of Hei Long Jiang province (HLJ), from the study of the exchange rate level and exchange rate risk. By using the monthly data, it constructs an Imports and Exports Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and performs empirical estimates. The results indicate a co-integration relationship exists between imports and exports trade of HLJ and RMB nominal exchange rate、exchange risk respectively. It is obvious that RMB appreciation inhibits the merchandise export trade of HLJ, but such appreciation does not increase any imports. Furthermore, the exchange rate risk has a negative effect on merchandise imports and exports of HLJ.
机译：本文通过对汇率水平和汇率风险的研究，研究了人民币汇率变动对黑龙江省进出口的影响。通过使用月度数据，它构建了进出口自回归分布式滞后模型（ARDL）并执行了经验估计。结果表明，HLJ进出口贸易与人民币名义汇率，汇率风险之间存在协整关系。显而易见，人民币升值抑制了HLJ的商品出口贸易，但这种升值并未增加任何进口。此外，汇率风险对HLJ的商品进出口有负面影响。

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