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首页> 外文会议>Intelligent Agents, 2009. IA '09 >Random walk in extreme conditions - an agent based simulation of suicide bombing
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Random walk in extreme conditions - an agent based simulation of suicide bombing

机译：极端条件下的随机行走-基于Agent的自杀炸弹模拟

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This paper presents a Monte-Carlo simulation tool based on stationary multi-agent system. The agents are constrained by physical characteristics and mechanics of blast waves. The proposed tool examines the impact of blast waves in an event of suicide bombing on human body. The tool is capable of assessing the impact of crowd formation patterns and their densities on the magnitude of injury and number of casualties during a suicide bombing attack. While various attempts have been made to assess the impact of blast waves and its overpressure on buildings and animals, little has been done on crowd formation, crowd density and underlying geometry to mitigate the effects. Results indicated that the worst crowd formation is street (Zig-Zag) where 30% crowd can be dead and 45% can be injured, given typical explosive carrying capacity of a single suicide bomber. Row wise crowd formations was found to be the best for reducing the effectiveness of an attack with 18% crowd in lethal zone and 38% in injury zones. For a typical suicide bombing attack, we can reduce the number of fatalities by 12%, and the number of injuries by 7%. The simulation results were compared and validated by the real-life incidents and found to be in good agreement. Line-of-sight with the attacker, rushing towards the exit, and stampede were found to be the most lethal choices both during and after the attack. These findings, although preliminary, may have implications for emergency response and counter terrorism.
机译：本文提出了一种基于平稳多智能体系统的蒙特卡洛仿真工具。药剂受爆炸波的物理特性和力学的约束。所提出的工具检查了自杀式炸弹爆炸对人体的冲击波的影响。该工具能够评估自杀式炸弹袭击中人群形成模式及其密度对伤害程度和伤亡人数的影响。尽管已经进行了各种尝试来评估爆炸波及其超压对建筑物和动物的影响，但对于减少人群形成，人群密度和下方的几何形状所做的努力却很少。结果表明，考虑到单个自杀式炸弹的典型爆炸能力，最坏的人群形成是街道（之字形），其中30％的人群可能死亡，45％的人员受伤。人们发现，按行排列的人群编队是降低攻击效果的最佳方法，致命区的人群为18％，受伤区的人群为38％。对于典型的自杀式炸弹袭击，我们可以将死亡人数减少12％，将受伤人数减少7％。对仿真结果进行了比较，并通过实际事件进行了验证，发现结果吻合良好。攻击者的视线，冲向出口和踩踏事件是攻击期间和之后最致命的选择。这些调查结果尽管是初步的，但可能会对紧急响应和反恐产生影响。

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