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Research Progress on the Agriculture Drought Disaster Risk and its Research Theoretical Framework

机译：农业干旱灾害风险及其研究理论框架的研究进展

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Drought disaster risk occurrence frequency is one of most high, and its affection is most severe in the worldwide, which is more serious in China and had threatened our food security. With the climate change, drought disaster had serious impacts on agricultural production and increasing risks of agricultural disasters. Therefore, the agricultural drought risk characteristics and management problem are particularly important under climate warming conditions. Drought disaster risk was effected by the spatial and temporal pattern of drought risk hazard factors such as the frequency and intensity of precipitation, environmental vulnerability, sensitivity and exposure. These three factors are both independent and connected each other. In view of this, based on the crops drought threshold and the risk mechanism, firstly, we analyzed the drought disaster risk research progress domestic and overseas in recent, which can provide information to the future studies. Secondly, the agriculture drought risk assessment must be established based on detailed agricultural drought dynamic monitoring and assessment methods, and the main technological process included building the assessed database using the meteorological observation data, drought disaster data, integration of data and remote sensing, a long sequence of yield and climate and drought disaster loss data (including agricultural drought of drought-induced areas, drought-occurred areas and no harvest areas), based on remote sensing inversion, field investigation, mathematical statistics and so on, comparing the adaptability of the drought monitoring index, identifying the drought disaster hazard index. Thirdly, based on the long term drought disaster and production data, selecting the occurring drought samples in the crop growth period and calculating reduction rate, building the relationship between production and drought disaster index, based on the reduction rate to quantify the hazard index critical value and grading, quantify the contribution degree of the drought in different growth period to production, confirming the different agriculture drought intensity threshold values and its classifications. And then, based on the theory of coupled risk simulation, combined the drought disaster hazard factor, environmental vulnerability, sensitivity and exposure theory to build the agriculture key growth period disaster risk assessment models. Based on the built models, the different grades drought threshold values, the drought risk development characteristics and drought regional difference can be identified. Lastly, revealed the contribution of key physical factor to risk and it physical mechanism to happen. These can provide some information on the agriculture key growth period drought risk physical mechanism and improving risk management levels.
机译：干旱灾害风险发生频率最高，在世界范围内其影响最严重，在中国更为严重，已经威胁到我们的粮食安全。随着气候变化，干旱灾害对农业生产造成了严重影响，农业灾害风险增加。因此，在气候变暖条件下，农业干旱风险特征和管理问题尤为重要。干旱灾害风险受到干旱风险危害因素的时空格局的影响，例如降水的频率和强度，环境脆弱性，敏感性和暴露程度。这三个因素既相互独立又相互联系。有鉴于此，首先基于农作物干旱阈值和风险机制，分析了国内外干旱灾害风险研究的最新进展，可以为今后的研究提供信息。其次，农业干旱风险评估必须建立在详细的农业干旱动态监测与评估方法的基础上，其主要技术过程包括利用气象观测数据，干旱灾害数据，数据与遥感的整合来建立评估数据库。基于遥感反演，野外调查，数理统计等基础上的产量，气候和干旱灾害损失数据序列（包括干旱地区，干旱发生地区和无收成地区的农业干旱），比较了干旱监测指标，确定干旱灾害危害指数。第三，根据长期干旱灾害和生产数据，选择作物生长期发生的干旱样本，计算减灾率，建立减灾率与产量的关系，根据减灾率量化危害指数的临界值。分级，量化不同生育时期干旱对生产的贡献程度，确定了不同农业干旱强度阈值及其分类。然后，基于耦合风险模拟理论，结合干旱灾害危害因子，环境脆弱性，敏感性和暴露理论，建立了农业关键生长期灾害风险评估模型。基于建立的模型，可以识别不同等级的干旱阈值，干旱风险发展特征和干旱区域差异。最后，揭示了关键物理因素对风险的贡献及其发生的物理机制。这些可以为农业关键生长期干旱风险的物理机制和提高风险管理水平提供一些信息。

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