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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Computer Engineering and Technology;ICCET 2010 >Study on Dynamic Change of Ecological Footprints and its Prediction Based on GM(1,1) in Coal Mining Area: a Case of Huaibei
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Study on Dynamic Change of Ecological Footprints and its Prediction Based on GM(1,1) in Coal Mining Area: a Case of Huaibei

机译：基于GM（1,1）的矿区生态足迹动态变化及其预测研究-以淮北市为例

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摘要

Ecological footprint model is a new tool of measuring sustainable development in a region. In this paper,based on the model of EF,ecological footprints(EF)and ecological capacities(EC) are calculated from 1996 to 2005 in Huaibei. The results show that EF per capital increases from 1.7790 hectare in 1996 to 5.1204 hectare in 2005 by the annual rate of 18.78%. Meantime,EC per capital slightly decreases from 0.3647 hectare in 1996 to 0.3122 hectare in 2005 by the annual rate of 1.44%. According to GM(1,1) predictions,by the time of 2010,EF per capital will have arrived at 7.4619 hectare. However,EC per capital will drop by the annual rate of 1.43. It is concluded that ecological deficits (ED) of Huaibei will continue enlarging in the future five years. Further,among six types of land area,fossil energy land caused mostly by coal mining is the main reason of highly ED. Therefore,in order to lower the stress of ecosystem in mining area and jointly answer global change of climate,we should make great efforts to adjust the demand of coal energy and positively develop low coal economy.
机译：生态足迹模型是衡量一个地区可持续发展的新工具。本文基于EF模型，计算了淮北市1996年至2005年的生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明，人均EF从1996年的1.7790公顷增加到2005年的5.1204公顷，年增长率为18.78％。同时，人均EC从1996年的0.3647公顷略降至2005年的0.3122公顷，年增长率为1.44％。根据GM（1,1）的预测，到2010年，人均EF将达到7.4619公顷。但是，人均EC的年增长率将下降1.43。结论是，淮北的生态赤字在未来五年将继续扩大。此外，在六种土地类型中，化石能源土地主要是煤炭开采造成的，是造成高ED的主要原因。因此，为减轻矿区生态系统的压力，共同应对全球气候变化，应努力调整煤炭能源需求，积极发展低煤经济。

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